🔥Notice of Appearance - Daniel Kamensky, Former Managing Partner of Marble Ridge Capital. Part I.🔥

Daniel Kamensky Speaks. Part I.

Today we welcome Daniel Kamensky, former Managing Partner of Marble Ridge Capital. Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, you’re likely aware of who Mr. Kamensky is. If you don’t, you can catch up on prior Neiman Marcus coverage here:

Answers were edited only slightly for clarity.

*****

PETITION: Welcome Dan. Thank you for making the time for us. This is not a question we typically ask our Notice of Appearance subjects but these circumstances are obviously extraordinary: how are you holding up?

Kamensky: It’s been a challenging time for me and my family. But we are taking it one day at a time. That’s really the only way to approach something like this. You rely a lot on your support network. The distressed community has been a source of strength, and I am grateful for that.

Going through this experience has made me appreciate even more what is important in life. Purpose, gratefulness. Not that I didn’t have those in mind before, but they were always competing against other day-to-day distractions.

I have a deeper appreciation for friendship and family. And the importance of empathy, the dangers of acting out of anger and panic.

In a moment, your entire life can change.

PETITION: Let’s take a step back and talk about your youth. Any important experiences you would like to share?

Kamensky: I have always had a strong sense of right and wrong and for fighting against injustice. When I was 12 years old I joined Chicago Action for Soviet Jewry. I made a poster with the verse from Deuteronomy, “Justice, Justice, Thou Shalt Pursue” to raise awareness of the plight of Jews living in Russia. It may seem like ancient history, but growing up in the Soviet Union in the 80s was dangerous for Jews. Jews lived in fear and with anxiety of an unknown future.

We had a large family still living in the old Soviet Union. So, I was able to hear of their stories first hand. And it was a call to action for me. We sponsored and worked to have them emigrate to the United States, which they did in the late 80s. We now have a large group of cousins living in Chicago. We helped them find jobs and adjust to their new lives. I then worked with a social service agency that worked with recent Russian immigrants to help them acclimate to their new country.

I have always tried to be a force multiplier for good and believe strongly in charity and doing well for others. That sense of justice and working to help others was borne from my youth.

In college, I studied Cervantes and traveled to Spain. My professor at the time, Señor Juan Lopez, became my mentor and my first great role model. Lopez and Cervantes believed that each one of us is a child of our own labors (Cada uno es hijo de sus obras) meaning that we have to stand up for what we believe in. Quixote criticized the goliaths (the knights and upper classes) of the medieval ages that relied on words of chivalry rather than standing against ignorance and bigotry. He challenged many of the prejudices and biases of his time by calling out inequality - that became a strong influence in my life.

PETITION: You made a jump “to the business side” that a lot of biglaw associates dream of. What advice would you give others looking to make a similar move?

Kamensky: Working at Simpson [Thacher] was at a great experience. I really enjoyed the people and the work but after 6 years there the work lost some of its challenge. Strategizing and the game theory of advising clients was one of the highlights of the job. But too often I spent my time waiting on others. I wanted more control over my career and to challenge myself. My advice to others would be don’t leave a law firm after only spending a few years there. Too many people leave a law firm too early in their career, without getting any of the benefits of the practice. A future employer will see greater value in hiring someone with more experience given the lock-step nature of associate compensation. Use that to your advantage.

Network. Network. Network. Always take a meeting and help others in making career choices. You never know when those people can help you. Read up. Take classes on finance and accounting and learn how to us excel.

And most importantly, play to your strengths. As a lawyer, you will have particular strengths that others with a more traditional financial background will not have. Use that to your advantage. My marketing pitch when I launched Marble Ridge started with, “I play to my strengths”. You should as well.

PETITION: What made you think you could make the jump from big law to an investment bank?

Kamensky: At the time I had no idea. I had no formal financial training, and had no idea how to build a financial model.

But I had learned about risk and reward as a lawyer. Law grounds you in reason and the building blocks of logic. That is an incredibly important skill-set. You can look at any problem and immediately see a three dimensional chess board of outcomes playing out before you. But not all lawyers make successful investors. The difference, and I have said this before when asked, is that most lawyers understand the risk of making a particular decision but few can look at both the risk and potential benefits of making a decision and explain how those roads could potentially diverge. And even fewer still can look at both risk and reward and then advise which decision, in their judgment, presents the best path forward. That is investing. A good example of someone who has that type of mindset would be someone like Paul Basta [of Paul Weiss Rifkind Wharton & Garrison LLP]. Paul does an amazing job of not only presenting bookends, the pros and cons of making a particular decision, but he also recommends a particular course of action even in light of the risks. Most lawyers don’t compare.

PETITION: You ended up at Lehman Brothers. Any defining experiences there?

Kamensky: Walking into the high yield and distressed trading desk of Lehman Brothers as the desk’s legal analyst in March 2005 was like entering a gladiator’s arena for the first time. The 4th floor opens up to a football field sized room with rows of trading desks set up with Bloomberg terminals and phone systems called turrets with dozens of dedicated speed dial buttons connecting sales/traders to clients and a protruding microphone called a hoot that’s used to immediately disseminate information across the trading floor. All this made for a cacophony of yelling and cursing with traders and salesmen yelling back and forth across the rows communicating orders to and from client accounts.

In February 2007, Hugo Chavez nationalized three major heavy oil projects located in the Orinoco region of Venezuela. Each project had financed its expansion with high yield debt placed with insurance companies based in the United States. When the Venezuelan legislature passed laws enabling the expropriation of these projects, the insurance companies ran for the exits. The head of the desk covering the insurance companies, Jimmy G., sensed an opportunity and came running over from his row across the room to the distressed desk asking for help. I ran into an office and closed the door to drown out the background noise and scanned the collateral and security agreement and quickly found what I was looking for. All the bank accounts for the project were based in the United States with deposit agreements in place governed by New York law. As long as PDVSA, the Venezuelan national oil company, continued to ship oil to their specialized refineries located in the United States, which seemed highly likely, cash would continue to accumulate in a U.S. based account for the benefit of bond investors. Within an hour, we were picking up debt that had plummeted from near par to as low as 30 cents on the dollar. Of the $600 million of debt outstanding, Lehman Brothers had quickly become a holder of $100 million of bonds.

Bondholders then started the process of declaring a “prospective default”. For as long as a prospective default existed, cash could not be distributed out of the collateral accounts and over the next year cash continued to build in the collateral accounts, eventually surpassing the total amount of debt outstanding. By the end of 2007, bondholders had negotiated a full pay out of the bonds including a premium, the best possible outcome representing an enormous success for the trading desk and for me professionally.

PETITION: At Paulson & Co., the next stop on your career trajectory, you allegedly made a killing trading Lehman claims. Walk us through your process there and what — other than your knowledge of Lehman from your stint there — positioned you for success with this strategy?

Kamensky: Analyzing financial companies is probably the most difficult skill set I’ve learned in my career. Working on insurance liquidations in my first few years as a lawyer helped prepare me to understand how a financial company undergoes stress. For a financial company, you have to understand how they finance themselves. If a company is relying on financial instruments other than funded debt to finance its business, it likely has a complex financing structure where legal niceties give way to financing tools. And that usually leads to shifting assets throughout a capital structure to find the most efficient financing structure.  In those cases, you have to ask what counter parties relied on in extending credit. In the case of Lehman Brothers, it was a very simple observation that counter-parties extended credit based on the rating of the holding company. That ultimately led to the theory of substantive consolidation, which benefits holding company bondholders over subsidiary creditors. I also had precedent on my side. The only other comparable broker-dealer to have filed for bankruptcy, Drexel Burnham, relied on substantive consolidation to distribute assets to creditors. In early 2009, we purchased approximately $9 billion of holding company bonds and created a coalition of the willing, led by Jerry Uzzi [of Milbank LLP] (including bond behemoths like PIMCO and governmental agencies like the County of Santa Rosa in California) to advocate for bondholder interests. In April 2011, we filed a plan premised on substantive consolidation and ultimately negotiated a plan (kudos to Raj Iyer [of Canyon Partners LLC]) that included significant value allocation to holding company bondholders. While this was a successful investment it, more importantly, led to friendships that still exist today (you know who you are).

PETITION: On the flip side — putting aside Neiman, what was one trade that went horrifically sideways in your career and why? What did you miss and why? What could you have done differently?

Kamensky: Stay away from energy. It’s nothing but a bad bet on oil prices. We lost a ton in the energy space and I would stay away.

PETITION: In February 2015, you jumped ship from Paulson and decided to hang a shingle, so to speak. Tell us a bit about that process. What was it like starting a new fund as a first-time emerging manager and what was the fundraising process like? What were some of the challenges and if you could give your younger self any advice about it, what would that be?

Kamensky: It takes every ounce of energy, commitment and confidence to launch a fund. It is taking the ultimate risk, and my launch was risky even by those standards.

In 2015, I was preparing for a much celebrated launch of a hedge fund with significant funding from a large fund of funds based in Chicago.  But as we neared our launch in October 2015, our seed went out of business and I had to pivot quickly and launched Marble Ridge Capital only a few months later in January 2016.  We came limping out of the gates with only a bare minimum of capital raised from friends and family in what was an unheard of amount of $17 million for a credit fund.

We were well below the amount of assets required by even the most forgiving of banks to act as an intermediary between a hedge fund and a trading counter-party. Without a bank acting as a “prime broker” to extend credit to ensure closing of a trade, you cannot trade. And, if you cannot trade, you are out of business.

10 days before our anticipated launch, I managed to schedule a meeting with the Head of Prime Brokerage at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. ($JPM)Mike Minikes. Mike is a throw-back to a bygone era, when relationships meant something and deals were made by handshakes. I had already been through credit and risk reviews with every third-tier bank and knew I would have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to make JP Morgan take us as a prime brokerage client. When I arrived at Mike’s office, he had his entire team assembled: risk, credit, capital introduction and relationship management. I made a pitch from my heart, that no challenge was too great but I needed JP Morgan to make my dream become a reality. At the end of my speech, Mike rose and shook my hand and the rest, as they say, is history.

As I left, my head was spinning. Not only did we have an open-for-business sign but it had been planted by none other than JP Morgan.

2016 was a banner year for my new fund. Of the more than 500 hedge fund launches in 2016, we received the much coveted “Absolute Return Award” for best risk-adjusted returns of any new hedge fund launch for that year. And investors began to pile in. By the end of 2016 we managed over $200 million, by 2017 $500 million, and nearly $1 billion by 2020.

But that growth came at great emotional cost. Stress and anxiety took their toll on me. I sought help and am better for that. But we need to do a better job of talking about the challenges of mental health in what is an incredibly intense and stressful business. No one should be afraid to ask for help. That’s the first step toward getting yourself to a better place.

PETITION: Neiman. Initially, you won. Discuss. How did it feel to defeat a couple of funds, BS independent directors, and a powerful law firm that had been gaslighting you for years?

Kamensky: This was never about winning or losing. This was about seeing something so wrong and so brazen that it needed to be called out. It is not about defeating any one party or about achieving a victory as such but rather righting wrongs. Throughout my entire life, my commitment has been to help right wrongs whether it be a social cause or otherwise. I have always believed and will continue to adhere to the concept “Justice, Justice thou shalt pursue.” In the end, my efforts to hold the board of Neiman, its management, lawyers at Kirkland and Ares accountable for their severe wrongdoing was addressed and was made right ultimately for Neiman creditors, which included not only bondholders but merchants and suppliers who had been harmed by Ares’ actions.

PETITION: But then you lost. You couldn’t stop yourself, exhibiting a fierce sense of entitlement in your interaction with Jefferies. Walk us through your thought process there.

Kamensky: At the end of the day, my position was vindicated by every unbiased party in the case.  What happened on July 31 is somewhat unrelated to Ares’ fraudulent conveyance. What I lost was my ability to manage my emotions at a particular moment in time on July 31, when I let anger get the better of me, propelling me into an ill-fated phone call with Jefferies over their last minute attempt to get themselves cut into a potential bondholder deal. At the time, it felt like a shake-down by Jefferies and I did not believe that they were real. Subsequent events have proven me right.

Giving in to my anger in that moment has forever changed my life. I hope others can learn from my mistakes….

*****

In part II in Sunday’s a$$-kicking briefing, PETITION and Daniel Kamensky discuss:

📍More on the Neiman Marcus case;
📍Creditor-on-creditor violence;
📍The MyTheresa IPO;
📍Necessary changes to the bankruptcy process;
📍Activist judges;
📍Legal ethics in restructuring and more.

You don’t want to miss this.

Fast Forward: Week of 1/7/17

Destination Maternity is churning through management while continuing to insist that Berkeley Research Group is only providing operational improvement services. Fieldwood Energy has a little more timeNeiman Marcus is getting serious about engaging various creditors about its well over-levered balance sheet ($4.9b of debt). Steinhoff International Holdings N.V. is in the market for a Chief Restructuring Officer. Before year end, there were some interesting happenings with Sungard AS that may portend some action to come.

Retail (Who the hell can keep up?)

Toy's R' Us YOY down $33mm and comp stores down 4%. Neiman Marcus, meanwhile, reported that it is terminating its proposed sale process. Hudson's Bay Co., considered a buyer, is suffering itself and apparently the two parties couldn't figure out what to do with Neiman's $4.8b of debt. Now the company has to fend for itself. Speaking of bigbox, Sears Canadalooks like the first domino to fall in the Sears empire and its former CEO isn't pulling any punches vis-a-vis ESL. Ascena Retail Group ($ASNA) announced that it's closing 25% of its stores. And now the game of chicken between retailers and malls is at full force with restaurants bouncing around to the Sam Cassell big balls dance (c'mon, you know the reference). Finally, Walmart bought Bonobos and the retail race is on: WMT vs. AMZN!

Lots of Busted #Retail Narratives Part II ($SMRT)

A quick look at SMRT's board and it's no wonder they, too, have been swept up in the retail carnage: members include former executives from Macy's and Neiman Marcus. We're surprised there hasn't been a corporate governance backlash against these various retailers as Amazon - which just celebrated its 20th anniversary - didn't exactly come out of nowhere. We don't think it's a coincidence that Walmart surprised to the upside. With Kevin Systrom (Instagram Founder) and Greg Penner (early Baidu investor) on the Board, there are some new innovative voices around the table. We may need to do a deeper dive on this but aren't entrenched management teams and old-school directors part of this story? Classic innovator's dilemma.

Interesting Restructuring News

  • 3-D Printing. A few weeks ago we noted the disruptive potential of 3-D printing. You can revisit that piece here. The spare parts market already appears to be under seige.
  • Automation. We hate to pick on support staff as there's been a lot of pain there the past decade but...short administrative assistants? On the flip side, note this.
  • European Distressed Debt. The vultures are looking at Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, last week Agent Provocateur, this week Jones Bootmaker = the latest PE-backed European retailer staring down the brink of administration(with KPMG hired to find a buyer).
  • Grocery. Food deflation appears to be leveling off - good news for grocers who had a rough 2016 (which we covered previously here).
  • Guns. Looks like the rise in anti-Semitism and hate crimes hasn't translated into robust gun sales: Remington Arms Co. is downsizing. The $2.6mm trade claim the company has in the Gander Mountain Company bankruptcy won't help matters either.
  • Malls. The Providence Arcade is deploying new and creative ways to put mall space to use. This brings a whole new meaning to "consumer culture." Meanwhile, more on malls becoming the new big short.
  • RestaurantsRuby Tuesday is now for sale after closing 100 locations. UBS is apparently the financial advisor.
  • Retail. Shocker! A newly released report delineating the most valuable retail brands failed to include Charming Charlie'sPayless Shoesrue21J.Crew...ah, you get the point. Also notably absent from this list is Neiman Marcus which, given its lack of scale (42 stores, ex-Last Call & Bergdorf Goodman), isn't all too surprising on a relative basis but that hasn't stopped it from attracting attention from Hudson's Bay Co (note: the Canadians have been taking a lot of interest in US retail lately, see, also Eastern Outfitters). Looks like some teens DO shop at Neiman Marcus but find malls, generally, "vanilla"...choice quote here: "I like finding stuff on eBay - clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing...[e]verything you can't find in a mall." See, also, Poshmark. Meanwhile, private equity backed retail is especially sordid.
  • Retail IIBon Ton Stores (BONT) reported higher earnings, cost savings that bested projections and a free cash flow positive '16 (compared to a wildly cash flow negative '15). But same store sales were down big. A few takeaways: 1) bad retail performance is always partially the weather's fault; 2) it's planning to make its landlords sweat with lease negotiations; 3) it's closing 46 stores in '17; 4) it's picking from the carcass of closed Macy's locations, poaching vendors and sales associates; and 5) it's still over-levered AF. While there is no near-term maturity post-retirement of the '17 second lien senior secured notes and the company claims liquidity through '17, the company is still levered at 8.5x and raising rates, generally, won't help retail. And the stock trades in dogsh*t (reverse split?) territory at $1.00. Hmmmmm.

  • Fast Forward: iHeartMedia launched an optimistic restructuring process seeking to swap more than 90% of its $20b of debt; Gymboree got a going-concern warning in the face of declining revenue and same-store sales and a 12/17 maturity; Gulfmark Offshore skipped its interest payment triggering a 30-day grace period due 4/15; the same date marks the forbearance expiration agreed to by lenders of 21st Century Oncology; and Concordia International Corp. reported HORRIBLE numbers and declined to provide go-forward guidance given the headwinds confronting drug pricers. 
  • Rewind I: We swear we're not picking on Sun Capital Partners but this week S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vince Intermediate Holdings to CCC+ making SCP's portfolio a virtual retail minefield. 
  • Rewind II: Yawn, more Westinghouse
  • Rewind III: Last week we covered Aquion Energy in our summaries of cases (click company name for summary). Turns out, this dog is more controversial than we thought as its another example of government subsidy gone wrong. Which is not to say we're not for experimentation/funding with/for alternative energy businesses, particularly in storage. But the comments to this seem on point.
  • Chart of the Week

Chart of the Week II

News for the Week of 3/5/17

  • Coal. Post-reorg players like Arch Coal are now trying to take advantage ofgovernment subsidy (which reeks of buyside "value-realization"): query what this means for alternative energy players who already receive such subsidies and are rumored to be under siege by the Trump administration...?
  • Environment. We wrote a few months ago about Oklahoma and the apparent correlation between wastewater disposal and an uptick in seismic activity. The seismic-hazard warning for Oklahoma in 2017 is "still significantly elevated."
  • Golf & Sexy Time. There's zero correlation: we just thought it was a funny combination. That said, tough times for TaylorMade (owned by Adidas and apparently being shopped by Guggenheim Securities). Meanwhile, Agent Provocateur sold while in UK "administration" to an affiliate of Sports Direct (which also recently surfaced as the stalking horse bidder in Eastern Outfitters). AlixPartners was the administrator.
  • Legal ProfessionShort big firm junior lawyers.
  • Power. This is an odd report on Westinghouse
  • Retail. We're getting a little sick of sounding like a broken record but Best Buy and Target reported numbers this past week and then saw massive stock drops due to weak guidance. And Barnes & Noble got DECIMATED after reporting numbers. The good news is that the coloring fad appears to be over. Meanwhile, the tech barrage shows no signs of abating: GameStop came under pressure this week after Microsoft announced its subscription gaming service. Is GameStop an immediate near term restructuring candidate? No, but part of the value we provide is highlighting for you where future pain points are hiding and without sounding TOO dramatic, this could be the beginning of the end.
  • Retail II. We're nerds and so we found this analysis of when to close retail stores interesting. And we're curious to know if any of our advisory readers agree with this...LET US KNOW. Speaking of closing retail stores, Abercrombie will close 60 storesCrocs will close 160 stores, and looming bankruptcy candidate hhgregg is closing 88 stores (which briefly sent Best Buy's stock north back up, despite earnings). Meanwhile, Neiman Marcus hired Lazard for balance sheet help and Radio Shack 2.0 (aka General Wireless Operations) is rumored to be Radio Shack chapter 22.0.  
  • TechRough week for Uber. Choice quote: "Before too long, Uber's cash will run out. And if Uber hasn't built a viable self-driving car by then, the results won't be pretty."
  • Telecom. Wow, Intelsatbailed out

  • Fast ForwardSeadrill Ltd. noted the possibility of a bankruptcy filing, sending the stock into a tizzy. Still, John Fredriksen quickly highlighted his history of no default. Related, Pacific Drilling also noted in its earnings call that Chapter 11 is possible. 
  • Rewind I: A lot of folks have been sleeping on tech bankruptcies, but NJOY was a hardware bankruptcy from last year that now has a resolution: Mudrick Capital seeks to turn the company around, operating it like a PE-owned company rather than a VC-funded company. Speaking of which, Cirque du Soleil got a workover by TPG Capital (and AlixPartners) and now there's this YouTube promotional video to show for it. Speaking of purchases out of bankruptcy, it seems a Canadian retail player made the first move on Wet Seal only to be outflanked by Gordon Brothers.
  • Rewind IISoundcloud looks increasingly like it will be in the busted tech bankruptcy bucket. IP sale?
  • Chart of the Week
  • Tweet of the Week: This is great because it doubles as a second chart of the week: we're so creative. Anyway, we hate to say we told you so but, effectively,we told you so: we'd love to know why nearly 200 companies felt the need to reference AI in their earnings reports...

News for the Week of 2/12/17

  • Coal. Prices have risen and Trump is promising assistance. Is this enough to offset sagging demand? China's new measures aren't helping. But the capital markets are, as Peabody EnergyArch Coal, and Contura Energy are all taking advantage of cheap financing/refinancing options. Peabody shopped an upsized term loan (by $450mm) with revised company-favorable pricing; it also issued new notes and bonds. Amazing how quickly things changed with coal.
  • Chicago. S&P is making threats. 
  • Electric Vehicles. Something tells us that oil and gas management teams and their wildly astute restructuring bankers and advisors neglected to bake this element into their business plans. 
  • European DebtIncreasing concerns about Italy and Greece. Meanwhile, in France, CVC Capital Partners' owned vehicle leasing firm Fraikin has hired Rothschild to restructure its 1.4 billion Euro debt. Lazard will represent the mezz debt.
  • Moelis & Co. & Aramco"Ken of Arabia"? C'mon, that's just dumb.
  • Power. California has more power plants than it needs. After a slate of power-related bankruptcies, it looks like there is more hurt to come in this space. And big developments on the storage side probably won't help. And this new cooling tech won't help either - if it's legit.
  • Retail. And people wonder why private equity is vilified...case and point: Rackspace. Speaking of private equity, Canada Goose's proposed IPO reeks of a dump-and-run on greater fools. Millennials don't spend money, but Bain Capital will have us believe that $900 fur-lined jackets are the exception to the rule. Riiiight. 
  • Retail Part IIOrganized Retail Crime = massive problem. 
  • Retail Part IIIGander Mountain = toast.
  • Retail Part IVAmazon announced that the number of third-party sellers on its B2B site has reached 45k, up about 50% from the approx 30k sellers it had at the end of Q2...IN JUNE.
  • Return of the Maturity Wall. Nothing gets restructuring professionals' juices flowing like sexy maturity stats. So, here it is: $2 trillion of corporate debt comes due in five years. And this is, in part, because the capital markets are definitely wide open right now in the face of soon-to-be rising interest rates. Take THAT wall, President Trump! 
  • Sears. Everyone is looking at this oncoming trainwreck and wondering "when?", not "if." Nice recent CDS movements on it but then the company unearthed a remarkable $1b in cost savings. Like, out of nowhere. And, naturally, the stock soared 25+%.
  • Spotify. Typically there are tremors before the earthquake. Perhaps Filip TechnologiesViolin Memory, and Nasty Gal are the tremors foreshadowing a venture debt-backed reckoning on the horizon. It's unclear. But, in Spotify's case, the interest ratchets attached to $1b of debt get more and more expensive with each consecutive quarter sans IPO. A big "unicorn" is going to fail and fail big. Spotify may not be the one, but it ain't looking great. But that one IS coming (Zenefits anyone?). Along these lines, how the eff is Theranos not bankrupt yet
  • Takata. Inching towards bankruptcy.
  • Fast Forward: Most retail-focused restructuring pros emphasize "omni-channel," the latest retail buzzword that, practically speaking, means basically nothing in today's climate. Case and point: Neiman Marcus, which was downgraded this week with projected 10x leverage on $4.77b of debt. Most of the cap stack traded at new lows this week. Omni-channel ain't a panacea, it appears.
  • Rewind IThis result for Relativity Media sure sounds positive.
  • Rewind II: The grocery space is getting hammered so badly that now even Whole Foods is retrenching, shutting more stores than it's opening go-forward.
  • Chart of the Week
Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 5.14.32 PM.png

News for the Week of 01/29/17

  • Artificial Intelligence. Throw the phrase "AI-based" in front of anything and all of the sudden it's like gold. Including retail. We're pretty sure we'll start seeing established companies start rebranding to curtail further devolution, e.g., neiman-marcus.ai or Macy's.ai. After all, we have MacGuyver back on TV and Luke Skywalker back in the theaters...might as well get nostalgic for .com-style frenzy. 
  • Boutique IBanking. An interesting review of the stock performance of one of the original public boutique investment banking firms out there: Greenhill & Co
  • Coal. Longview Power CEO Jeff Keffer's assessment of the industry. TL;DR...at least under Trump there's a chance...
  • Conflicts. Believe it or not, conflicts DO exist in bankruptcy court. We're just as shocked as you, but in the Transtar bankruptcy cases, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP submitted a motion seeking to withdraw from the case after it determined that "in responding to requests by the Examiner in the course of its investigation, WF&G's own interests may conflict with the interests of the Debtors, or create an appearance of such a conflict." Pinch us. Jones Day LLP is apparently taking Willkie's place for the debtors.
  • Hedge funds. This about sums it up: "No matter what initial capital you give the hedge fund to start with, the hedge fund will become richer than you since its real talent is transferring your wealth into its coffers..."  Indeed, with 2/20, a hedge fund making 10% will make more money than its investors in 17 years.
  • Malls. We probably give the impression that we really love to shop given all of the mall talk lately. But, c'mon, you can talk to us until you're blue in the face about A Malls and C Malls but the truth is that A-LL malls are looking increasingly screwed. There are so many experiential possibilities. 
  • Neiman Marcus as a High Yield Sinkhole. The debt is plummeting: some holders are hitting eject on high yield retailers. And more concerns about liquidity in the bond market.
  • Taxis. So, the Uber effect is contagious? Seemingly so. Capital One Financial holds a distressed (and distressing) taxi medallion lending portfolio. Ugly chart here. Clearly the business traveler has embraced non-taxi options.
Natural gas price projections.

Natural gas price projections.

News for the Week of 01/08/17

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE PAST THREE WEEKS (PLAYING CATCH-UP EDITION)

  • Distressed Investing Hindsight. Avaya. Phone systems? Who would've guessed this could go wrong? Psssst: don't tell anyone but apparently Avaya and Goodman Networks are apparently in 30-day grace periods.
  • Fintech. Cracks in P2P lending by way of bankruptcy (Argon Credit).
  • Fraud. Theranos announced that it's letting go 41% of its work force - which we believe is a precursor to bankruptcy. Why file? To sell IP. If they actually even have any. And address litigation. Meanwhile, Snapchat, on the heals of a possible IPO, is being sued for misleading investors. Toss in ethical issues around Hampton Creek and others and we may start seeing some fraud-related bankruptcies a la 2001.
  • Grocery. Is Kroger's buyout announcement another leading indicator of future distress?
  • Media. Ev Williams, founder of Twitter and Medium, acknowledges that the ad-supported media model is broken while significantly cutting headcount. It seems that $150mm VC funding can't help produce a new business model. 
  • Retail. It looks like the Trump Job Preservation Tour forgot to schedule stops at KMart, Sears and Macy's (meanwhile Sears unloaded Craftsman and JC Penney shed its HQ). Next up: Kohl's? Ugly 20% drop after a nasty comp store sales drop and forecast cut. Apparently, omnichannel customers are the key to the riddle. Meanwhile, Amazon is sniffing around American Apparel (as is Forever 21, reportedly) and Boohoo is focused on Nasty Gal. Gap - mostly due to a 12% comp sales increase at Old Navy - showed positive signs while Neiman Marcus cancelled its IPO, a clear negative.
  • Taxi Companies. Uber is the death of traditional taxi companies and new tech companies that support the taxi companies (Karhoo). Which means those companies must really suck since Uber burned $3b in '16.
  • Wearables. Pebble. "Acquired." Vinaya. Bankrupt. Does someone want to raise us a Jawbone?
  • Fast Forward: With Amazon and Apple in the mix, music streaming services are struggling to make money and Soundcloud may be the closest victim. Restructuring professionals will remember that Rdio already went through bankruptcy and sold to Pandora.
  • Fast Forward II: Remember Exco?
  • Rewind IPlatinum Partners. It's amazing how funds get away with this nonsense: 17% returns for 13 years.
  • Rewind IIAthleisure. Financials-related Uh oh (Finish Line). And bankruptcy-related uh oh (Yogasmoga). But like most things, Amazon gives zero $&%s.
  • Rewind IIICoal. Maybe Trump will help the "clean coal" industry after all. And yet solar continues to progress, as does wind (in the UK and elsewhere). Ps, $361 billion is an awfully large number. And now things are progressing on the storage side thanks to Elon Musk.
  • Chart of the Week

News for the Week of 12/18/16

  • Distressed Debt. More focus lately on Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, New Jersey is issuing transportation debt directly to state pension funds, cutting out middlemen in the issuance and driving down issuance costs. 
  • Hertz. Despite Carl Icahn's best efforts, this company has shown nothing but decline in the face of Uber and Lyft stealing revenue from the consumer-facing rental car business.
  • Renewable Energy. Wind and natural gas are on the rise in the United States: there's no holding it back. Interestingly, Statoil announced this week that it - like many others - is abandoning the Canadian oil sands to the tune of a $500mm impairment; meanwhile, Statoil paid $42.4mm for a lease to develop a wind farm 79k acres southeast of New York City. There were 33 rounds of bidding: the longest auction the agency has ever had for offshore wind. Earlier this week the wind farm offshore of Rhode Island went on-line.
  • Shenanigans. JCrew transferred its IP to a Cayman subsidiary triggering significant downward trending term loan activity; IHeartMedia elected not to pay $57mm of senior notes due to an affiliate upon maturity which may or may not be a CDS credit event; Cumulus Media launched a lawsuit against JPMorgan for allegedly unreasonably withholding consent to a proposed refinancing transaction that would significantly delever its balance sheet. 
  • Takata. The airbag recall keeps spreading - now to McLaren, Ferrari and Tesla. Chances are the company is looking on at the General Motors situation with great interest.
  • Twinkies. An interesting summary of the company's history - including stints in bankruptcy.
  • Fast Forward: Forbes Energy Services' fifth forbearance expires on 12/23, Stone Energy's equity committee hearing is 12/21, and CHC Group Limited may get its PSA ruling from Judge Houser this week.
  • Rewind I: Neiman Marcus reported dog-sh*t numbers this past week blaming a strong US dollar and general retail headwinds for a widened $23.5mm loss. Headwinds persist for retailers: here are top trends affecting retail go-forward.
  • Rewind II: For-Profit Education. The US FTC announced a $100mm settlement with DeVry University, capping a BRUTAL two years for for-profit education. Some highlights: ITT Technical Institute already shut down earlier in the year, the infamous Trump University recently settled a suit for $25mm, and last year Education Management Corporation paid a $95.5mm settlement and Corinthian Colleges filed for bankruptcy.
  • Rewind III: We discussed Amazon Go last week. Here are some more takes on the technology.
  • Chart of the Week

Tweet of the Week

News for the Week of 10/2/16

NEWS FOR THE WEEK OF 10/2/16

  • Apparently the 400-pound trolls of the interwebs are responsible for a 4.1% comparable sales drop at Ares and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board held Neiman Marcus.  Well, AND pain in Texas.  AND tourist spending being down because of the strength of the dollar. Related, Fitch takes a bearish view on a number of retailers while others look at Nine West and Weight Watchers and ask, "Remember Cov-Lite?".  
  • Meanwhile, is it possible for Sears to kill malls when they're already dead?
  • Consumer bankruptcies in Alberta Canada are soaring as unemployment hits a 22-year high of 8.6%.  
  • Takata faces the rare mass-litigation-based bankruptcy filing.
  • Chart of the Week: