Feedback: Is a Lot of Fraud-based Bankruptcy on the Horizon?

A number of you seemed surprised and impressed by Anne Eberhardt’s Notice of Appearance. We asked and Anne answered,

PETITION: What is one notable trend you expect to see in ’18 that not enough people are talking about?

The fallout from the effects of the collapse of trust. When even the auditors of the auditors’ audits are cheating (see DoJ’s press release of January 23, 2018, announcing the arrest of several former partners of a Big Four CPA Firm, accused of hiring PCAOB staff to provide confidential regulatory information to help the Firm improve its audit inspection results), you know we’re headed for a disaster of biblical proportions: fire and brimstone, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together…mass hysteria.

There has been a rash of thematically-on-point news on this front in the past week.

Regarding General Electric ($GE),

“The two largest proxy-advisory firms are recommending that General Electric Co. fire KPMG LLP as its auditor after 109 years, in light of accounting issues at the industrial giant.”

Regarding PriceWaterhouseCoopers,

“The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. could collect the largest damage award ever against a global public accounting firm when a federal judge decides what to award the agency after a verdict against PricewaterhouseCoopers.”

Relating to Longfin ($LFIN), a charade among charades in the blockchain/cryptocurrency space:

“But in the last 10 days, the shares have fallen about 80%. There were several triggers: A number of prominent short sellers made public attacks on Longfin; the company’s shares were added and then days later removed from the Russell 2000 Index; and on Monday the company said the SEC was conducting an investigation called In the Matter of Trading in the Securities of Longfin, which hasn’t resulted in any conclusions.”

And Mozido, a once-high-flying tech startup:

“Michael Liberty advertised that Mozido, the start-up he founded which once boasted a valuation of $5.6 billion, would revolutionize mobile payments and bring financial services to 2 billion unbanked adults worldwide. But securities regulators claim Liberty hyped up Mozido while raising $55 million that mostly went into his own pocket.

The Securities & Exchange Commission has sued Liberty for fraud in federal court in Maine, saying Liberty stole most of the $55 million he purportedly raised for Mozido from 200 individual investors.”

And then there is Theranos, the fraudulent “unicorn” helmed by Elizabeth Holmes that has fallen on some tough times of late. Per The Wall Street Journal last night,

“Blood-testing firm Theranos Inc. laid off most of its remaining workforce in a last-ditch effort to preserve cash and avert bankruptcy for a few more months, according to people familiar with the matter.”

And:

Once its cash falls under that threshold, the terms of the Fortress loan agreement allow the New York private-equity firm to seize the company’s assets and to liquidate them, she said.”

What exactly did Fortress Investment Group LLC lend Theranos $100 million against? Is there even IP here? The blood testing tech was a fraud; the Zika test isn’t working. What gives here?

At least Ms. Holmes has been focused on “burn rate” and conserving cash with an eye towards giving the Zika trials a fighting chance:

“Until Tuesday, Ms. Holmes still had two personal assistants and two security guards who drove her around in a black Cadillac Escalade SUV, according to the people familiar with the matter.”

What. The. F*ck.

We are sure that there will be at least a handful of high profile fraud-based bankruptcies that emerge in due time. Mark our words: 60% of the time it happens every time.

Busted Tech (Fraudulent AF)

Busted Tech (Fraudulent AF). So Theranos investors are b*tching that they are being coerced into a settlement by the threat of bankruptcy. Clearly these geniuses - you know, the same sophisticated ones who invested in a company that has fraudulently been selling a technology it doesn't have - were under the impression that, somehow, the company would be able to manage hundreds of millions of dollars in judgments against it WITHOUT bankruptcy. Who is advising these clowns?

News for the Week of 2/12/17

  • Coal. Prices have risen and Trump is promising assistance. Is this enough to offset sagging demand? China's new measures aren't helping. But the capital markets are, as Peabody EnergyArch Coal, and Contura Energy are all taking advantage of cheap financing/refinancing options. Peabody shopped an upsized term loan (by $450mm) with revised company-favorable pricing; it also issued new notes and bonds. Amazing how quickly things changed with coal.
  • Chicago. S&P is making threats. 
  • Electric Vehicles. Something tells us that oil and gas management teams and their wildly astute restructuring bankers and advisors neglected to bake this element into their business plans. 
  • European DebtIncreasing concerns about Italy and Greece. Meanwhile, in France, CVC Capital Partners' owned vehicle leasing firm Fraikin has hired Rothschild to restructure its 1.4 billion Euro debt. Lazard will represent the mezz debt.
  • Moelis & Co. & Aramco"Ken of Arabia"? C'mon, that's just dumb.
  • Power. California has more power plants than it needs. After a slate of power-related bankruptcies, it looks like there is more hurt to come in this space. And big developments on the storage side probably won't help. And this new cooling tech won't help either - if it's legit.
  • Retail. And people wonder why private equity is vilified...case and point: Rackspace. Speaking of private equity, Canada Goose's proposed IPO reeks of a dump-and-run on greater fools. Millennials don't spend money, but Bain Capital will have us believe that $900 fur-lined jackets are the exception to the rule. Riiiight. 
  • Retail Part IIOrganized Retail Crime = massive problem. 
  • Retail Part IIIGander Mountain = toast.
  • Retail Part IVAmazon announced that the number of third-party sellers on its B2B site has reached 45k, up about 50% from the approx 30k sellers it had at the end of Q2...IN JUNE.
  • Return of the Maturity Wall. Nothing gets restructuring professionals' juices flowing like sexy maturity stats. So, here it is: $2 trillion of corporate debt comes due in five years. And this is, in part, because the capital markets are definitely wide open right now in the face of soon-to-be rising interest rates. Take THAT wall, President Trump! 
  • Sears. Everyone is looking at this oncoming trainwreck and wondering "when?", not "if." Nice recent CDS movements on it but then the company unearthed a remarkable $1b in cost savings. Like, out of nowhere. And, naturally, the stock soared 25+%.
  • Spotify. Typically there are tremors before the earthquake. Perhaps Filip TechnologiesViolin Memory, and Nasty Gal are the tremors foreshadowing a venture debt-backed reckoning on the horizon. It's unclear. But, in Spotify's case, the interest ratchets attached to $1b of debt get more and more expensive with each consecutive quarter sans IPO. A big "unicorn" is going to fail and fail big. Spotify may not be the one, but it ain't looking great. But that one IS coming (Zenefits anyone?). Along these lines, how the eff is Theranos not bankrupt yet
  • Takata. Inching towards bankruptcy.
  • Fast Forward: Most retail-focused restructuring pros emphasize "omni-channel," the latest retail buzzword that, practically speaking, means basically nothing in today's climate. Case and point: Neiman Marcus, which was downgraded this week with projected 10x leverage on $4.77b of debt. Most of the cap stack traded at new lows this week. Omni-channel ain't a panacea, it appears.
  • Rewind IThis result for Relativity Media sure sounds positive.
  • Rewind II: The grocery space is getting hammered so badly that now even Whole Foods is retrenching, shutting more stores than it's opening go-forward.
  • Chart of the Week
Screen Shot 2017-02-10 at 5.14.32 PM.png

News for the Week of 01/08/17

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW FROM THE PAST THREE WEEKS (PLAYING CATCH-UP EDITION)

  • Distressed Investing Hindsight. Avaya. Phone systems? Who would've guessed this could go wrong? Psssst: don't tell anyone but apparently Avaya and Goodman Networks are apparently in 30-day grace periods.
  • Fintech. Cracks in P2P lending by way of bankruptcy (Argon Credit).
  • Fraud. Theranos announced that it's letting go 41% of its work force - which we believe is a precursor to bankruptcy. Why file? To sell IP. If they actually even have any. And address litigation. Meanwhile, Snapchat, on the heals of a possible IPO, is being sued for misleading investors. Toss in ethical issues around Hampton Creek and others and we may start seeing some fraud-related bankruptcies a la 2001.
  • Grocery. Is Kroger's buyout announcement another leading indicator of future distress?
  • Media. Ev Williams, founder of Twitter and Medium, acknowledges that the ad-supported media model is broken while significantly cutting headcount. It seems that $150mm VC funding can't help produce a new business model. 
  • Retail. It looks like the Trump Job Preservation Tour forgot to schedule stops at KMart, Sears and Macy's (meanwhile Sears unloaded Craftsman and JC Penney shed its HQ). Next up: Kohl's? Ugly 20% drop after a nasty comp store sales drop and forecast cut. Apparently, omnichannel customers are the key to the riddle. Meanwhile, Amazon is sniffing around American Apparel (as is Forever 21, reportedly) and Boohoo is focused on Nasty Gal. Gap - mostly due to a 12% comp sales increase at Old Navy - showed positive signs while Neiman Marcus cancelled its IPO, a clear negative.
  • Taxi Companies. Uber is the death of traditional taxi companies and new tech companies that support the taxi companies (Karhoo). Which means those companies must really suck since Uber burned $3b in '16.
  • Wearables. Pebble. "Acquired." Vinaya. Bankrupt. Does someone want to raise us a Jawbone?
  • Fast Forward: With Amazon and Apple in the mix, music streaming services are struggling to make money and Soundcloud may be the closest victim. Restructuring professionals will remember that Rdio already went through bankruptcy and sold to Pandora.
  • Fast Forward II: Remember Exco?
  • Rewind IPlatinum Partners. It's amazing how funds get away with this nonsense: 17% returns for 13 years.
  • Rewind IIAthleisure. Financials-related Uh oh (Finish Line). And bankruptcy-related uh oh (Yogasmoga). But like most things, Amazon gives zero $&%s.
  • Rewind IIICoal. Maybe Trump will help the "clean coal" industry after all. And yet solar continues to progress, as does wind (in the UK and elsewhere). Ps, $361 billion is an awfully large number. And now things are progressing on the storage side thanks to Elon Musk.
  • Chart of the Week