Recruiting & Business Development (Long Innovation)

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Think Outside the Box, We Say

We can't seem to get over our own obsession with private equity/biglaw/bank recruiting; we've written about it here, here and here. Why? Mostly because its stupid-absurd which, in turn, makes it funny. But after reading about the rise of corporate pop-ups here, we came up with what we think is a genius way to jumpstart business development and recruiting efforts in one fell swoop: a biglaw pop-up store. Stick with us here: picture a mall with next-wave bankruptcy candidates like Charming Charlie, Nine West, Bon-Ton Stores ($BONT), Sears Corporation ($SHLD), Destination XL ($DXLG), Destination Maternity ($DEST), etc. (collectively, the "Effed Retailers"). Picture, also, within close proximity, a corporate pop-up for, say, Law Firm AB&C LLP featuring all kinds of fancy screens rolling clips of how bada$$ and extreme its attorneys are while arguing (or singing) in court on behalf of retail clients. Imagine the product placement opportunities for the likes of Payless Shoesource, rue21 Inc., Gymboree, and True Religion (the "Successfully Reorganized Retailers"). "Stop by the AB&C LLP popup for awesome limited edition kicks and 'lit' specialty women's apparel," they'll say. In the opposite corner there can be a skull-and-crossbones banner hovering over an ominous display of retail carnage, e.g., hhgregg, Gander Mountain, etc. - all of which were, conveniently, of course, represented by other firms. Like, literally, a pair of running kicks should be on fire and death metal ought to be playing on the loud speaker. Of course, the managers of the Effed Retailers will see this and, in a panicked frenzy, start dialing corporate HQ asking, "Who is our Restructuring counsel?" Oh, really? Fire them. We need to hire AB&C LLP stat!" Meanwhile the Successfully Reorganized Retailers will generate some revenue from the product placement which, of course, they'll want to pay back when they inevitably are no longer "successful" and need to file for Chapter 22. Cha Ching! Another retention. Don't forget the REITs: Simon Property Group ($SPG) can continue to boast about 97% occupancy rates thanks to AB&C LLP filing space. And, finally, think of the branding potential. Law students and future law students will walk by and say "Holy crap. I want to go work at THAT law firm, AB&C LLP." Massive cross-benefit for recruiting. Whichever of your firms deploys this strategy first can send royalties via Paypal to petition@petition11.com.

Payless Shoes = "Successful" Reorganization?

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Everything is Relative

Everything is relative. Apparently, as we noted above, Payless Shoesource set the bar for what constitutes a "successful reorganization": not liquidating. We think there should be a tail or clawback for such labels given the state of retail these days and the seemingly strong likelihood of retail Chapter 22s. Apropos, Payless is taking "additional steps" to sure up its footing, which apparently includes "a significant workforce downsizing to occur this week." While stores may be open, (some) jobs preserved and tax revenue maintained (assuming the company doesn't just accumulate net operating losses), this news probably doesn't sound all too "successful" to those employees who now look like they're going to have a rough holiday season. Like we said, everything is relative: what may have been a "successful reorganization" to those lawyers touting as much in court looks entirely different to those who are now worried about Christmas.

Dividend Recapitalization (Like, Seriously, Why Not?)

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So, this isn't new territory for PETITION readers. We highlighted the dividend recap that came under fire in Payless Holdings. What ultimately happened? Well, a bunch of papers were filed under seal (and some reputations were, presumably, besmirched) and then a settlement. Because, of course. Why air out an issue that can have ramifications across various jurisdictions when you can just settle it and sweep the whole dispute under the rug? PETITION NOTE: For the uninitiated, and putting it simply, a dividend recap happens when a company issues debt and clogs up its balance sheet for the purpose of paying cash-money dividends to its private equity sponsor. It's been a feature of, like, virtually every private equity owned retail bankruptcy of the last year. Or at least the one's that have filed outside of Delaware, anyway. Why? Because capital markets, kids. Really? Yeah, and because of spreads. Spreads? Yeah, which happen to be narrow AF right now. But we digress. Anyway, stats: per LCD News, "[t]hus far in 2017, $15.31 billion of funds raised from sponsor-backed loans were earmarked for a distribution, nearly double the $7.77 billion in the same period a year ago and well ahead of the $10.24 billion in the first three quarters of 2015." Which, for the record, ain't a shabby number in and of itself. So, again, why not? Everyone's doing it? And getting away with it. 

Disruption. In Human Terms.

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Manchester Vermont is One of Many Towns to Feel Effects of E-Commerce

This is a heart-breaking piece about the effect of e-commerce on Manchester Vermont, where the commercial vacancy rate has risen from 5 to 15%. People seem to be legitimately suffering. Choice quote, "Morrow admitted to sleepless nights, staring at the ceiling and worrying about the economic storms stirred by Internet commerce." Yikes. Our readers know that we like to snark but this is no laughing matter. 

Retail bankruptcies are so common these days that perhaps we've become de-sensitized to the effect that this rapid change is having. Prior to Payless and Gymboree - two recent actual reorganizations - most of these businesses have liquidated. Those are jobs gone forever. That is tax revenue gone forever. Others have pivoted towards the internet and e-comm only, leaving shuttered brick-and-mortar and blighted communities in their wake. 

Is this depressing for a Monday? You bet. But we hope that it provides a little bit of motivation to those restructuring professionals out there reading this. Maybe you can help drive a retail client towards a resolution that keeps it in business? 

We also hope that it provides those tech entrepreneurs looking to "disrupt" the world a little bit of perspective. While the article may be speaking about "unintended consequences," they are consequences nonetheless. And those consequences are affecting thousands of lives. 

Interesting Restructuring News

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  • Grocery. Cerberus Capital Management-owned Albertsons is reportedly in talks regarding a possible take-private buyout of publicly-traded grocer Sprouts Farmers Market ($SFM). Given the tough grocery environment, this is an interesting development. And it may get EVEN MORE interesting given this.
  • Oil&Gas. Crude stockpiles hit a modern record this week as American producers basically flick off Saudi Arabia/OPEC and produce, baby, produce. Crude priced down to ~$48/barrel. This - and the embattled state of Seadrill Ltd. - isn't stopping John Fredriksen from looking at picking off offshore assets. Speaking of offshore assets, the oil players are going face-to-face with power suppliers - for wind. Meanwhile, a dissenting view relating to the effect of the rise of electric cars on oil demand (paywall). Elsewhere, in Canada...
  • Retail. Bebe Stores Inc. ($BEBE) is plans to shut down its brick-and-mortar locations and become an exclusively e-comm brand - a plan that depends on the sudden charity of landlords who have shown ZERO propensity for flexibility with retail tenants. Seriously, like, ZERO. See, e.g., THE TRAIL OF RETAIL CORPSES LINING THE 2017 BANKRUPTCY ROLLS. Meanwhile, Land's End ($LE) continued to suffer from its association with Sears while reporting a perfect storm of, wait for it...decreased net revenue, decreased catalogue and e-commerce revenue, decreased same-store sales, and worsening gross margin. J.Crew  reported sliding sales, revenue and same-store comps but nevertheless reported a (very) small profit - largely on the back of Madewell. And then there is Nike ($NKE) which, in its quarterly report, noted increased profit but modest sales growth in the face of online shipping headwinds.
  • Retail II. Uh oh. It appears that Walmart may be getting it's (e-commerce) sh*t together which doesn't bode well for brick-and-mortar already suffering from the Amazon onslaught. Speaking of which, peace out Payless Inc. Wethinks we'll soon be saying "peace out" to a bunch of Chinese shoe manufacturers on top of the thousands of American jobs that will be wiped out. But dividends for Golden Gate Capital and Blum Capital Partners!
  • Rewind I: We have taken a little bit of heat for two mentions of 3D-printing in this newsletter; we have been accused of over-hyping the technology and its near-term ramifications. Well, noting the Adidas announcement this week, have we?? 
  • Chart of the Week: 

Interesting Restructuring News

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  • 3-D Printing. A few weeks ago we noted the disruptive potential of 3-D printing. You can revisit that piece here. The spare parts market already appears to be under seige.
  • Automation. We hate to pick on support staff as there's been a lot of pain there the past decade but...short administrative assistants? On the flip side, note this.
  • European Distressed Debt. The vultures are looking at Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, last week Agent Provocateur, this week Jones Bootmaker = the latest PE-backed European retailer staring down the brink of administration(with KPMG hired to find a buyer).
  • Grocery. Food deflation appears to be leveling off - good news for grocers who had a rough 2016 (which we covered previously here).
  • Guns. Looks like the rise in anti-Semitism and hate crimes hasn't translated into robust gun sales: Remington Arms Co. is downsizing. The $2.6mm trade claim the company has in the Gander Mountain Company bankruptcy won't help matters either.
  • Malls. The Providence Arcade is deploying new and creative ways to put mall space to use. This brings a whole new meaning to "consumer culture." Meanwhile, more on malls becoming the new big short.
  • Restaurants. Ruby Tuesday is now for sale after closing 100 locations. UBS is apparently the financial advisor.
  • Retail. Shocker! A newly released report delineating the most valuable retail brands failed to include Charming Charlie's, Payless Shoes, rue21, J.Crew...ah, you get the point. Also notably absent from this list is Neiman Marcus which, given its lack of scale (42 stores, ex-Last Call & Bergdorf Goodman), isn't all too surprising on a relative basis but that hasn't stopped it from attracting attention from Hudson's Bay Co (note: the Canadians have been taking a lot of interest in US retail lately, see, also Eastern Outfitters). Looks like some teens DO shop at Neiman Marcus but find malls, generally, "vanilla"...choice quote here: "I like finding stuff on eBay - clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing...[e]verything you can't find in a mall." See, also, Poshmark. Meanwhile, private equity backed retail is especially sordid.
  • Retail II. Bon Ton Stores (BONT) reported higher earnings, cost savings that bested projections and a free cash flow positive '16 (compared to a wildly cash flow negative '15). But same store sales were down big. A few takeaways: 1) bad retail performance is always partially the weather's fault; 2) it's planning to make its landlords sweat with lease negotiations; 3) it's closing 46 stores in '17; 4) it's picking from the carcass of closed Macy's locations, poaching vendors and sales associates; and 5) it's still over-levered AF. While there is no near-term maturity post-retirement of the '17 second lien senior secured notes and the company claims liquidity through '17, the company is still levered at 8.5x and raising rates, generally, won't help retail. And the stock trades in dogsh*t (reverse split?) territory at $1.00. Hmmmmm.
  • Fast Forward: iHeartMedia launched an optimistic restructuring process seeking to swap more than 90% of its $20b of debt; Gymboree got a going-concern warning in the face of declining revenue and same-store sales and a 12/17 maturity; Gulfmark Offshore skipped its interest payment triggering a 30-day grace period due 4/15; the same date marks the forbearance expiration agreed to by lenders of 21st Century Oncology; and Concordia International Corp. reported HORRIBLE numbers and declined to provide go-forward guidance given the headwinds confronting drug pricers. 
  • Rewind I: We swear we're not picking on Sun Capital Partners but this week S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vince Intermediate Holdings to CCC+ making SCP's portfolio a virtual retail minefield. 
  • Rewind II: Yawn, more Westinghouse. 
  • Rewind III: Last week we covered Aquion Energy in our summaries of cases (click company name for summary). Turns out, this dog is more controversial than we thought as its another example of government subsidy gone wrong. Which is not to say we're not for experimentation/funding with/for alternative energy businesses, particularly in storage. But the comments to this seem on point.
  • Chart of the Week: 

Chart of the Week II: 

News for the Week of 2/5/17

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  • Athleisure. Start the funeral dirge. Under Armour reported dreadful numbers and guided poorly, citing the Sports Authority bankruptcy as a reason for decreased exposure to product. Then S&P kicked UA while it was down, downgrading its corporate credit rating from investment grade to high yield. It's not a restructuring candidate with double-digit growth but its results don't bode well for retailers, generally. Good thing J.Crew is NOW starting to focus on athleisure.
  • Avaya. Doing a little damage control.
  • Cumulus Media. What the public is learning.
  • Europe. Some expect a bigger year for restructuring in 2017.
  • Private Equity. Some doubts about portfolio quality.
  • Solar. The technology continues to take hold and grab share but there'll be a lot of carnage along the way. Meanwhile, Exxon got pummeled, noting over $2b in writedowns.
  • Retail. As distressed investors and bankruptcy professionals lick their chops over the possibilities with rue21, True Religion, Claire's Stores, J.Crew and others, "fast fashion" gets a second look as a culprit in the demise of retail (adding to the typical Amazon narrative). Still, even H&M and Uniqlo have announced intentions to scale back growth plans and/or close stores in the US.
  • More Retail. The Finish Line Inc. announced its sale of Jack Rabbit Sports this week (66 locations) for undisclosed terms. "Undisclosed terms" = GU gels and a jock-strap. Peter J. Soloman served as financial advisor. The quote, "The acquisition eases fears that the chain would face liquidation with no strategic buyers for the business"...basically sums up specialty retail. Reasons for the company's struggles are particular to specialty running stores, including, notably a marked decline in marathon participation. It's just not that easy to take a selfie while running 26.2.
  • Morer Retail - Canada. Once high-flying e-commerce startup Shoes.comcapitulates under the weight of multiple lawsuits, thwarting an IPO. In addition to shutting down the e-comm channels, the Vancouver-based company will shut down two brick-and-mortar locations - effectively flushing $45mm of PE down the toilet. Still, that URL seems like it would fetch some value...
  • Fast Forward: Walmart is looking to disrupt Amazon while Amazon is looking to disrupt Alphabet and Facebook. And UPS. In other words, Amazon is after EVERYONE.
  • Rewind I: Usually we reserve "rewind" for topics we've discussed in previous weeks but we're making an exception here: apparently HMV still exists in Canada. Or did. What a major blast to the past. What were they selling, exactly, 8-tracks?
  • Rewind II: Payless Shoes. 4400 stores? Wow.  Apropos, retail now the sector with the most distressed debt. In other retail news worth a rewind, Sports Direct is reportedly in talks to acquire Eastern Outfitters, the parent company of Bob's Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports from Versa Capital Management out of bankruptcy. If those names sound familiar, it's because Versa literally just bought them in bankruptcy last year in the Vestis Group case. So, add this to the growing list of Chapter 22 cases. 
  • Rewind III: Given our revelation last week of the connection between Puerto Rico-Dentons-New Gingrich, its intriguing that Greenberg Traurig is distancing itself from another Trump supporter.
  • Chart of the Week: Sometimes to disrupt the incumbents, you have to bleed cash like nobody's business...

News for the Week of 11/27/16

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  • Avaya. The long-rumored and awaited Chapter 11 filing may be imminent.
  • Buzzfeed. Buzzfeed acqui-hired Ben Kaufman, former high-flying CEO of the bankrupted Quirky to try and crack the elusive e-commerce nut. 
  • Dallas. Police and firefighter pensions threaten to push the growing city into municipal bankruptcy.
  • Payless Shoes. Australian operations may prove to be a leading indicator for what's to come in the U.S. Meanwhile, as retailers fall into bankruptcy left and right, once-bankrupt Circuit City is scratching and clawing to a (potential) re-emergence. While American Apparel got pantsed last week, it seems that Abercrombie is getting closer to losing its shirt (#dadjoke?).
  • Sun Capital. Fresh on the heals of the Garden Fresh bankruptcy, it looks like another portfolio company is on the verge of a restructuring as The Limited Stores - with a not-so-limited 243 locations - has hired Guggenheim Partners to explore strategic alternatives. Other accounts indicate that this may be an IP asset sale in the vein of American Apparel. 
  • Rewind: Coal. Last week we highlighted the contradiction between what is happening in the coal industry and what President-Elect Trump says will happen. In another blow to coal, generally, Canada announced this week that intends to fully phase out coal by 2030.
  • Chart of the Week: