Unicorns 2.0 (Scooping Up Retail)

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Hudson's Bay & WeWork Say "Let's Make a Deal"

Hudson's Bay Co. ($HBC) was a real newsmaker this week. The company sold its Lord & Taylor NYC location to WeWork for $850mm. It also got a (convertible preferred) equity infusion of $500mm through a joint venture between WeWork and the Rhone Group. Which means that Softbank basically owns a piece of Fifth Avenue now. Regulate THAT misdirection/obfuscation. Anyway, HBC will use the proceeds to pay down its $1.6b of debt and, presumably, pretty itself up for a potential take-private transaction. For sure, the future is uncertain. P.S. This re: WeWork (firewall). Bankruptcy Judge ABC: "And so, Banker XYZ, on what valuation basis is the company's plan of reorganization viable and feasible?" Banker: "Our valuation and size today are more based on our energy and spirituality than it is on a multiple of revenue." Judge ABC: "Come again? Bankruptcy plan confirmation denied!" Going forward, whenever we have a typo or a busted link we hope you'll only judge us on our energy and spirituality. 

Retail (Who the hell can keep up?)

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Toy's R' Us YOY down $33mm and comp stores down 4%. Neiman Marcus, meanwhile, reported that it is terminating its proposed sale process. Hudson's Bay Co., considered a buyer, is suffering itself and apparently the two parties couldn't figure out what to do with Neiman's $4.8b of debt. Now the company has to fend for itself. Speaking of bigbox, Sears Canadalooks like the first domino to fall in the Sears empire and its former CEO isn't pulling any punches vis-a-vis ESL. Ascena Retail Group ($ASNA) announced that it's closing 25% of its stores. And now the game of chicken between retailers and malls is at full force with restaurants bouncing around to the Sam Cassell big balls dance (c'mon, you know the reference). Finally, Walmart bought Bonobos and the retail race is on: WMT vs. AMZN!

Interesting Restructuring News

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  • 3-D Printing. A few weeks ago we noted the disruptive potential of 3-D printing. You can revisit that piece here. The spare parts market already appears to be under seige.
  • Automation. We hate to pick on support staff as there's been a lot of pain there the past decade but...short administrative assistants? On the flip side, note this.
  • European Distressed Debt. The vultures are looking at Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, last week Agent Provocateur, this week Jones Bootmaker = the latest PE-backed European retailer staring down the brink of administration(with KPMG hired to find a buyer).
  • Grocery. Food deflation appears to be leveling off - good news for grocers who had a rough 2016 (which we covered previously here).
  • Guns. Looks like the rise in anti-Semitism and hate crimes hasn't translated into robust gun sales: Remington Arms Co. is downsizing. The $2.6mm trade claim the company has in the Gander Mountain Company bankruptcy won't help matters either.
  • Malls. The Providence Arcade is deploying new and creative ways to put mall space to use. This brings a whole new meaning to "consumer culture." Meanwhile, more on malls becoming the new big short.
  • Restaurants. Ruby Tuesday is now for sale after closing 100 locations. UBS is apparently the financial advisor.
  • Retail. Shocker! A newly released report delineating the most valuable retail brands failed to include Charming Charlie's, Payless Shoes, rue21, J.Crew...ah, you get the point. Also notably absent from this list is Neiman Marcus which, given its lack of scale (42 stores, ex-Last Call & Bergdorf Goodman), isn't all too surprising on a relative basis but that hasn't stopped it from attracting attention from Hudson's Bay Co (note: the Canadians have been taking a lot of interest in US retail lately, see, also Eastern Outfitters). Looks like some teens DO shop at Neiman Marcus but find malls, generally, "vanilla"...choice quote here: "I like finding stuff on eBay - clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing...[e]verything you can't find in a mall." See, also, Poshmark. Meanwhile, private equity backed retail is especially sordid.
  • Retail II. Bon Ton Stores (BONT) reported higher earnings, cost savings that bested projections and a free cash flow positive '16 (compared to a wildly cash flow negative '15). But same store sales were down big. A few takeaways: 1) bad retail performance is always partially the weather's fault; 2) it's planning to make its landlords sweat with lease negotiations; 3) it's closing 46 stores in '17; 4) it's picking from the carcass of closed Macy's locations, poaching vendors and sales associates; and 5) it's still over-levered AF. While there is no near-term maturity post-retirement of the '17 second lien senior secured notes and the company claims liquidity through '17, the company is still levered at 8.5x and raising rates, generally, won't help retail. And the stock trades in dogsh*t (reverse split?) territory at $1.00. Hmmmmm.
  • Fast Forward: iHeartMedia launched an optimistic restructuring process seeking to swap more than 90% of its $20b of debt; Gymboree got a going-concern warning in the face of declining revenue and same-store sales and a 12/17 maturity; Gulfmark Offshore skipped its interest payment triggering a 30-day grace period due 4/15; the same date marks the forbearance expiration agreed to by lenders of 21st Century Oncology; and Concordia International Corp. reported HORRIBLE numbers and declined to provide go-forward guidance given the headwinds confronting drug pricers. 
  • Rewind I: We swear we're not picking on Sun Capital Partners but this week S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vince Intermediate Holdings to CCC+ making SCP's portfolio a virtual retail minefield. 
  • Rewind II: Yawn, more Westinghouse. 
  • Rewind III: Last week we covered Aquion Energy in our summaries of cases (click company name for summary). Turns out, this dog is more controversial than we thought as its another example of government subsidy gone wrong. Which is not to say we're not for experimentation/funding with/for alternative energy businesses, particularly in storage. But the comments to this seem on point.
  • Chart of the Week: 

Chart of the Week II: