Notable (Cov Lite Loans, Delaware Bankruptcy Filings & More)

in

More = Busted Tech, Investment Banks & REITS

Biglaw. Summer Associate satisfaction surveys (firewall). In case anyone actually gives a sh*t.

Busted Tech. A view that recent IPOs will never make money. Meanwhile, Toys R Us is a harbinger of, you guessed it, BUSTED TECH. 

Canadian Retail. Also looking increasingly ugly.

Cov Lite. We're old enough to remember when people said it was dead and would never come back. Memories are short AF. 

Delaware. This article about retail bankruptcy cases avoiding filing in Delaware misses the mark widely. Like, way outside. Any DE practitioners want to opine - without attribution - on this?? Email us here.

Investment Banking. Jefferies can't trade for sh*t but advisory fees baby. Given these advisory fees, it looks like UBS wants to get back into the restructuring advisory game. Again. For, like, the 283th time. 

J.Crew. Investors are pissed.

New York. Is it in danger of becoming Detroit?

Puerto Rico. The hits just keep on coming. Sad, really.

REIT Investments. This is an interesting piece about alternative investments by REITS. Simon Property Group ($SPG) looks particularly active.

Retail (Taxes). When you're industry is in secular decline, fight for scraps. Here, tax changes.

Private Equity (retail, no mas)

in

Apparently they've finally gotten the memo on retail (although, as we have well covered, the PE shops seem to be doing okay even while driving their portfolio companies into bankruptcy...but we digress): investments in retail companies are down markedly to 86 globally in 2017 as compared to 300 in each of '15 and '16. Speaking of private equity and retail, gotta love the timing behind the departure of TPG Capital's sole female partner given David Bonderman's ill-timed and inappropriate comments in the Uber boardroom. Notably, one noted potential cause for the separation is that heads needed to roll for the terrible J.Crew investment.

Interesting Restructuring News

in
  • 3-D Printing. A few weeks ago we noted the disruptive potential of 3-D printing. You can revisit that piece here. The spare parts market already appears to be under seige.
  • Automation. We hate to pick on support staff as there's been a lot of pain there the past decade but...short administrative assistants? On the flip side, note this.
  • European Distressed Debt. The vultures are looking at Spain and Italy. Meanwhile, last week Agent Provocateur, this week Jones Bootmaker = the latest PE-backed European retailer staring down the brink of administration(with KPMG hired to find a buyer).
  • Grocery. Food deflation appears to be leveling off - good news for grocers who had a rough 2016 (which we covered previously here).
  • Guns. Looks like the rise in anti-Semitism and hate crimes hasn't translated into robust gun sales: Remington Arms Co. is downsizing. The $2.6mm trade claim the company has in the Gander Mountain Company bankruptcy won't help matters either.
  • Malls. The Providence Arcade is deploying new and creative ways to put mall space to use. This brings a whole new meaning to "consumer culture." Meanwhile, more on malls becoming the new big short.
  • Restaurants. Ruby Tuesday is now for sale after closing 100 locations. UBS is apparently the financial advisor.
  • Retail. Shocker! A newly released report delineating the most valuable retail brands failed to include Charming Charlie's, Payless Shoes, rue21, J.Crew...ah, you get the point. Also notably absent from this list is Neiman Marcus which, given its lack of scale (42 stores, ex-Last Call & Bergdorf Goodman), isn't all too surprising on a relative basis but that hasn't stopped it from attracting attention from Hudson's Bay Co (note: the Canadians have been taking a lot of interest in US retail lately, see, also Eastern Outfitters). Looks like some teens DO shop at Neiman Marcus but find malls, generally, "vanilla"...choice quote here: "I like finding stuff on eBay - clothes and accessories that no one else is wearing...[e]verything you can't find in a mall." See, also, Poshmark. Meanwhile, private equity backed retail is especially sordid.
  • Retail II. Bon Ton Stores (BONT) reported higher earnings, cost savings that bested projections and a free cash flow positive '16 (compared to a wildly cash flow negative '15). But same store sales were down big. A few takeaways: 1) bad retail performance is always partially the weather's fault; 2) it's planning to make its landlords sweat with lease negotiations; 3) it's closing 46 stores in '17; 4) it's picking from the carcass of closed Macy's locations, poaching vendors and sales associates; and 5) it's still over-levered AF. While there is no near-term maturity post-retirement of the '17 second lien senior secured notes and the company claims liquidity through '17, the company is still levered at 8.5x and raising rates, generally, won't help retail. And the stock trades in dogsh*t (reverse split?) territory at $1.00. Hmmmmm.
  • Fast Forward: iHeartMedia launched an optimistic restructuring process seeking to swap more than 90% of its $20b of debt; Gymboree got a going-concern warning in the face of declining revenue and same-store sales and a 12/17 maturity; Gulfmark Offshore skipped its interest payment triggering a 30-day grace period due 4/15; the same date marks the forbearance expiration agreed to by lenders of 21st Century Oncology; and Concordia International Corp. reported HORRIBLE numbers and declined to provide go-forward guidance given the headwinds confronting drug pricers. 
  • Rewind I: We swear we're not picking on Sun Capital Partners but this week S&P Global Ratings downgraded Vince Intermediate Holdings to CCC+ making SCP's portfolio a virtual retail minefield. 
  • Rewind II: Yawn, more Westinghouse. 
  • Rewind III: Last week we covered Aquion Energy in our summaries of cases (click company name for summary). Turns out, this dog is more controversial than we thought as its another example of government subsidy gone wrong. Which is not to say we're not for experimentation/funding with/for alternative energy businesses, particularly in storage. But the comments to this seem on point.
  • Chart of the Week: 

Chart of the Week II: 

News for the Week of 2/5/17

in
  • Athleisure. Start the funeral dirge. Under Armour reported dreadful numbers and guided poorly, citing the Sports Authority bankruptcy as a reason for decreased exposure to product. Then S&P kicked UA while it was down, downgrading its corporate credit rating from investment grade to high yield. It's not a restructuring candidate with double-digit growth but its results don't bode well for retailers, generally. Good thing J.Crew is NOW starting to focus on athleisure.
  • Avaya. Doing a little damage control.
  • Cumulus Media. What the public is learning.
  • Europe. Some expect a bigger year for restructuring in 2017.
  • Private Equity. Some doubts about portfolio quality.
  • Solar. The technology continues to take hold and grab share but there'll be a lot of carnage along the way. Meanwhile, Exxon got pummeled, noting over $2b in writedowns.
  • Retail. As distressed investors and bankruptcy professionals lick their chops over the possibilities with rue21, True Religion, Claire's Stores, J.Crew and others, "fast fashion" gets a second look as a culprit in the demise of retail (adding to the typical Amazon narrative). Still, even H&M and Uniqlo have announced intentions to scale back growth plans and/or close stores in the US.
  • More Retail. The Finish Line Inc. announced its sale of Jack Rabbit Sports this week (66 locations) for undisclosed terms. "Undisclosed terms" = GU gels and a jock-strap. Peter J. Soloman served as financial advisor. The quote, "The acquisition eases fears that the chain would face liquidation with no strategic buyers for the business"...basically sums up specialty retail. Reasons for the company's struggles are particular to specialty running stores, including, notably a marked decline in marathon participation. It's just not that easy to take a selfie while running 26.2.
  • Morer Retail - Canada. Once high-flying e-commerce startup Shoes.comcapitulates under the weight of multiple lawsuits, thwarting an IPO. In addition to shutting down the e-comm channels, the Vancouver-based company will shut down two brick-and-mortar locations - effectively flushing $45mm of PE down the toilet. Still, that URL seems like it would fetch some value...
  • Fast Forward: Walmart is looking to disrupt Amazon while Amazon is looking to disrupt Alphabet and Facebook. And UPS. In other words, Amazon is after EVERYONE.
  • Rewind I: Usually we reserve "rewind" for topics we've discussed in previous weeks but we're making an exception here: apparently HMV still exists in Canada. Or did. What a major blast to the past. What were they selling, exactly, 8-tracks?
  • Rewind II: Payless Shoes. 4400 stores? Wow.  Apropos, retail now the sector with the most distressed debt. In other retail news worth a rewind, Sports Direct is reportedly in talks to acquire Eastern Outfitters, the parent company of Bob's Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports from Versa Capital Management out of bankruptcy. If those names sound familiar, it's because Versa literally just bought them in bankruptcy last year in the Vestis Group case. So, add this to the growing list of Chapter 22 cases. 
  • Rewind III: Given our revelation last week of the connection between Puerto Rico-Dentons-New Gingrich, its intriguing that Greenberg Traurig is distancing itself from another Trump supporter.
  • Chart of the Week: Sometimes to disrupt the incumbents, you have to bleed cash like nobody's business...

News for the Week of 12/18/16

in
  • Distressed Debt. More focus lately on Africa and the Middle East. Meanwhile, New Jersey is issuing transportation debt directly to state pension funds, cutting out middlemen in the issuance and driving down issuance costs. 
  • Hertz. Despite Carl Icahn's best efforts, this company has shown nothing but decline in the face of Uber and Lyft stealing revenue from the consumer-facing rental car business.
  • Renewable Energy. Wind and natural gas are on the rise in the United States: there's no holding it back. Interestingly, Statoil announced this week that it - like many others - is abandoning the Canadian oil sands to the tune of a $500mm impairment; meanwhile, Statoil paid $42.4mm for a lease to develop a wind farm 79k acres southeast of New York City. There were 33 rounds of bidding: the longest auction the agency has ever had for offshore wind. Earlier this week the wind farm offshore of Rhode Island went on-line.
  • Shenanigans. JCrew transferred its IP to a Cayman subsidiary triggering significant downward trending term loan activity; IHeartMedia elected not to pay $57mm of senior notes due to an affiliate upon maturity which may or may not be a CDS credit event; Cumulus Media launched a lawsuit against JPMorgan for allegedly unreasonably withholding consent to a proposed refinancing transaction that would significantly delever its balance sheet. 
  • Takata. The airbag recall keeps spreading - now to McLaren, Ferrari and Tesla. Chances are the company is looking on at the General Motors situation with great interest.
  • Twinkies. An interesting summary of the company's history - including stints in bankruptcy.
  • Fast Forward: Forbes Energy Services' fifth forbearance expires on 12/23, Stone Energy's equity committee hearing is 12/21, and CHC Group Limited may get its PSA ruling from Judge Houser this week.
  • Rewind I: Neiman Marcus reported dog-sh*t numbers this past week blaming a strong US dollar and general retail headwinds for a widened $23.5mm loss. Headwinds persist for retailers: here are top trends affecting retail go-forward.
  • Rewind II: For-Profit Education. The US FTC announced a $100mm settlement with DeVry University, capping a BRUTAL two years for for-profit education. Some highlights: ITT Technical Institute already shut down earlier in the year, the infamous Trump University recently settled a suit for $25mm, and last year Education Management Corporation paid a $95.5mm settlement and Corinthian Colleges filed for bankruptcy.
  • Rewind III: We discussed Amazon Go last week. Here are some more takes on the technology.
  • Chart of the Week: 

Tweet of the Week: 

News for the Week of 11/20/16

  • Alberta, Canada. Steps needed to weather the oil downturn. In the US, some claim that oil-related job loss is bottoming.
  • Coal. Restructuring professionals have made millions in Arch Coal, Alpha Natural Resources, and Peabody Energy. But there's real pain out there in coal country - pain that Trump has promised to assuage by bringing back jobs. With that in mind, "Blood on the Mountain" looks like required viewing. This preview is compelling: we urge you to watch it. Even if others are more realistic about those job prospects.
  • Sears. The retailer's issues accelerate as suppliers get increasingly nervous and some predict this will be its last Christmas. Retail, generally, looks set to bludgeon private equity.
  • Fast Forward: Nuverra discloses restructuring talks, UCI International DS approved and marching towards confirmation, Stone Energy launches solicitation and filing in early December, JCrew hires Lazard, Homer City forbearance extended to 11/21, Paragon Offshore back to drawing board with cram-up attempt thwarted, Energy XXI announces PSA.  
  • Rewind I: An in-depth discussion of the Nasty Gal collapse.
  • Rewind II: Steinway Musical Instruments. Is apparently not a restructuring target yet. The company received an equity cure from Paulson & Co., pushing any potential restructuring activity deeper into 2017. 4th Quarter sales will be critical to avoid covenant pressure in '17.
  • Chart of the Week: