Recruiting & Business Development (Long Innovation)

Think Outside the Box, We Say

We can't seem to get over our own obsession with private equity/biglaw/bank recruiting; we've written about it herehere and here. Why? Mostly because its stupid-absurd which, in turn, makes it funny. But after reading about the rise of corporate pop-ups here, we came up with what we think is a genius way to jumpstart business development and recruiting efforts in one fell swoop: a biglaw pop-up store. Stick with us here: picture a mall with next-wave bankruptcy candidates like Charming CharlieNine WestBon-Ton Stores ($BONT), Sears Corporation ($SHLD), Destination XL ($DXLG), Destination Maternity ($DEST), etc. (collectively, the "Effed Retailers"). Picture, also, within close proximity, a corporate pop-up for, say, Law Firm AB&C LLP featuring all kinds of fancy screens rolling clips of how bada$$ and extreme its attorneys are while arguing (or singing) in court on behalf of retail clients. Imagine the product placement opportunities for the likes of Payless Shoesourcerue21 Inc.Gymboree, and True Religion (the "Successfully Reorganized Retailers"). "Stop by the AB&C LLP popup for awesome limited edition kicks and 'lit' specialty women's apparel," they'll say. In the opposite corner there can be a skull-and-crossbones banner hovering over an ominous display of retail carnage, e.g., hhgregg, Gander Mountain, etc. - all of which were, conveniently, of course, represented by other firms. Like, literally, a pair of running kicks should be on fire and death metal ought to be playing on the loud speaker. Of course, the managers of the Effed Retailers will see this and, in a panicked frenzy, start dialing corporate HQ asking, "Who is our Restructuring counsel?" Oh, really? Fire them. We need to hire AB&C LLP stat!" Meanwhile the Successfully Reorganized Retailers will generate some revenue from the product placement which, of course, they'll want to pay back when they inevitably are no longer "successful" and need to file for Chapter 22. Cha Ching! Another retention. Don't forget the REITs: Simon Property Group ($SPG) can continue to boast about 97% occupancy rates thanks to AB&C LLP filing space. And, finally, think of the branding potential. Law students and future law students will walk by and say "Holy crap. I want to go work at THAT law firm, AB&C LLP." Massive cross-benefit for recruiting. Whichever of your firms deploys this strategy first can send royalties via Paypal to petition@petition11.com.

News for the Week of 2/5/17

  • Athleisure. Start the funeral dirge. Under Armour reported dreadful numbers and guided poorly, citing the Sports Authority bankruptcy as a reason for decreased exposure to product. Then S&P kicked UA while it was down, downgrading its corporate credit rating from investment grade to high yield. It's not a restructuring candidate with double-digit growth but its results don't bode well for retailers, generally. Good thing J.Crew is NOW starting to focus on athleisure.
  • Avaya. Doing a little damage control.
  • Cumulus MediaWhat the public is learning.
  • Europe. Some expect a bigger year for restructuring in 2017.
  • Private Equity. Some doubts about portfolio quality.
  • Solar. The technology continues to take hold and grab share but there'll be a lot of carnage along the way. Meanwhile, Exxon got pummeled, noting over $2b in writedowns.
  • Retail. As distressed investors and bankruptcy professionals lick their chops over the possibilities with rue21True ReligionClaire's StoresJ.Crew and others, "fast fashion" gets a second look as a culprit in the demise of retail (adding to the typical Amazon narrative). Still, even H&M and Uniqlo have announced intentions to scale back growth plans and/or close stores in the US.
  • More RetailThe Finish Line Inc. announced its sale of Jack Rabbit Sports this week (66 locations) for undisclosed terms. "Undisclosed terms" = GU gels and a jock-strap. Peter J. Soloman served as financial advisor. The quote, "The acquisition eases fears that the chain would face liquidation with no strategic buyers for the business"...basically sums up specialty retail. Reasons for the company's struggles are particular to specialty running stores, including, notably a marked decline in marathon participation. It's just not that easy to take a selfie while running 26.2.
  • Morer Retail - Canada. Once high-flying e-commerce startup Shoes.comcapitulates under the weight of multiple lawsuits, thwarting an IPO. In addition to shutting down the e-comm channels, the Vancouver-based company will shut down two brick-and-mortar locations - effectively flushing $45mm of PE down the toilet. Still, that URL seems like it would fetch some value...
  • Fast ForwardWalmart is looking to disrupt Amazon while Amazon is looking to disrupt Alphabet and FacebookAnd UPS. In other words, Amazon is after EVERYONE.
  • Rewind I: Usually we reserve "rewind" for topics we've discussed in previous weeks but we're making an exception here: apparently HMV still exists in Canada. Or did. What a major blast to the past. What were they selling, exactly, 8-tracks?
  • Rewind IIPayless Shoes4400 stores? Wow.  Apropos, retail now the sector with the most distressed debt. In other retail news worth a rewind, Sports Direct is reportedly in talks to acquire Eastern Outfitters, the parent company of Bob's Stores and Eastern Mountain Sports from Versa Capital Management out of bankruptcy. If those names sound familiar, it's because Versa literally just bought them in bankruptcy last year in the Vestis Group case. So, add this to the growing list of Chapter 22 cases. 
  • Rewind III: Given our revelation last week of the connection between Puerto Rico-Dentons-New Gingrich, its intriguing that Greenberg Traurig is distancing itself from another Trump supporter.
  • Chart of the Week: Sometimes to disrupt the incumbents, you have to bleed cash like nobody's business...

News for the Week of 10/30/16

“It’s not like it was 30 years ago, but it’s a good mall”...

  • Athleisure - Lululemon, Nike and Under Armour had all killed it in recent years by focusing on athletic wear but the trend is in decline. Jeans may be making a comeback -- so long as they're not uber-cheesy, e.g., True Religion. Meanwhile, J.Crew recently announced a shift towards athleisure. Are they too late to the party?
  • More Under Armour. The Company reported down numbers this quarter, continuing to exhibit the effect The Sports Authority's bankruptcy has on its business. This holiday season will be make-or-break for a large number of retailers and may be watched closely by those who invest in malls...
  • "Dead Malls"This really puts the disparity between "A" malls and "dead" malls in perspective: Schuylkill Mall in Frackville Pennsylvania filed for bankruptcy this week. Anchor tenants: Bon-Ton, Dunham Sports, KMart, Hess's, and Sears. The latter three closed in the last 24 months, contributing to a "large vacancy rate."
  • Fund Raising: Oak Hill Advisors raised $2.7b for its second distressed fund while Carlyle raise $1.5b for another distressed fund. Clearly folks are prepping for increased activity.

  • Last Week: To quote renowned bankruptcy expert, Keanu Reeves Esq., "Whoa". Last week we discussed the historic Saudi Arabian debt issuance in our piece about "yield." This week, a Saudi official noted that the country's continued busted budget deficit could lead to sovereign bankruptcy within a few years.
  • Last Week Part II: That Ryan Kavenaugh dude has nine lives. It looks like Relativity Media will avoid a Chapter 22 filing (or liquidation) in light of its announced $250mm sale to some Singaporean sucker. Clearly its the Netflix streaming rights that proved compelling given the whopping ~$6mm intake on "Masterminds."
  • "Captain Obvious" Headline of the Week: "Bankruptcies in Oil Field Services are Accelerating."
  • Chart of the Week: To put this in perspective, as recently as 2010, only three states had at least a 10% wind share. Think about that in the the broader oil and gas context: this energy downturn is not just debt-related. We are looking at the broad-based beginning of a secular decline. 

News for the Week of 10/23/16

  • Stone Energy - the company announces plans for a prepackaged bankruptcy which, from our vantage point, will be one among a grouping of next-wave oil-and-gas-related prepackaged/prearranged chapter 11s to file this quarter (perhaps starting as early as this week).  
  • Distressed Debt Market - "They raised the money and now they have few places to put it." - an assessment of the overall state of distressed debt when low rates persist and bonds trade up. Marc Lasry, however, talks capital deployment in energy.  
  • Relativity Media - the Chapter 7 or Chapter 22 watch continues. 
  • Retail Grocery - continued movement in the battered space as Supervalu sells Save-a-Lot. 
  • Bill Ackman - is his comeuppance around the corner? 
  • True Religion - cheesiness, the millennial preference for athleisure, and too much debt put denim retailer in distressed territory.
  • Chart of the Week:
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