U.S. Postal Service Cannot Handle Amazon
Like we said, the US Postal Service needs bankruptcy. It doesn't help that it cannot keep very large customers like Amazon($AMZN) happy.
News for the Week of 01/29/17
- Artificial Intelligence. Throw the phrase "AI-based" in front of anything and all of the sudden it's like gold. Including retail. We're pretty sure we'll start seeing established companies start rebranding to curtail further devolution, e.g., neiman-marcus.ai or Macy's.ai. After all, we have MacGuyver back on TV and Luke Skywalker back in the theaters...might as well get nostalgic for .com-style frenzy.
- Boutique IBanking. An interesting review of the stock performance of one of the original public boutique investment banking firms out there: Greenhill & Co.
- Coal. Longview Power CEO Jeff Keffer's assessment of the industry. TL;DR...at least under Trump there's a chance...
- Conflicts. Believe it or not, conflicts DO exist in bankruptcy court. We're just as shocked as you, but in the Transtar bankruptcy cases, Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP submitted a motion seeking to withdraw from the case after it determined that "in responding to requests by the Examiner in the course of its investigation, WF&G's own interests may conflict with the interests of the Debtors, or create an appearance of such a conflict." Pinch us. Jones Day LLP is apparently taking Willkie's place for the debtors.
- Hedge funds. This about sums it up: "No matter what initial capital you give the hedge fund to start with, the hedge fund will become richer than you since its real talent is transferring your wealth into its coffers..." Indeed, with 2/20, a hedge fund making 10% will make more money than its investors in 17 years.
- Malls. We probably give the impression that we really love to shop given all of the mall talk lately. But, c'mon, you can talk to us until you're blue in the face about A Malls and C Malls but the truth is that A-LL malls are looking increasingly screwed. There are so many experiential possibilities.
- Neiman Marcus as a High Yield Sinkhole. The debt is plummeting: some holders are hitting eject on high yield retailers. And more concerns about liquidity in the bond market.
- Taxis. So, the Uber effect is contagious? Seemingly so. Capital One Financial holds a distressed (and distressing) taxi medallion lending portfolio. Ugly chart here. Clearly the business traveler has embraced non-taxi options.
- Fast Forward: We feature the US Postal Service in this week's "Fast Forward" because the business model is simply unsustainable - as these numbers illustrate.
- Rewind I: Wind. We weren't kidding about wind power going to New York.
- Rewind II: Retail. We've talked about the Amazon Effect. This week Crain's New York Business released an article entitled, "Amazon and High Rents are Killing New York City Retailers." Not just New York City, fellas. Otherwise in Amazon news, it remains to be seen to what degree the Amazon Go concept impacts tradition grocers, if at all. We covered this a few weeks ago. In the face of this new competition, Kroger isn't slowing down or scaling back.
- Rewind III: This doesn't bode well for Dick's Sporting Goods: apparently the alleged low hanging fruit left by The Sports Authority is a bit harder to pick than expected. In other retail trainwreck news, Wet Seal is indeed closing and likely headed towards Chapter 22. Why? Well, private equity, of course.
- Chart of the Week: Good news for natural gas producers as prices are expected to rise in '17 and '18...
Natural gas price projections.