Suniva & SolarWorld May Land Their Hail Mary

A Critical Decision on Solar is Coming

Remember how we previously told youabout bankrupt Suniva Inc. and SolarWorld AG's efforts to get the Trump Administration to levy tariffs on foreign solar imports (looking at you China)? Well, the US International Trade Commission ruled on Friday that domestic makers are, in fact, hurt by foreign imports. There are a few admin steps before it goes to Trump but this could get interesting. Choice quote: "Hopper argues Suniva and SolarWorld are the victims of mismanagement and that the foreign-owned companies are using U.S. trade laws to bail out their bad investments." You read that right: both companies are actually majority owned by, wait for it, non-US companies. W.T.F.

Disconcerting Trends in Healthcare

Wages Are Down

This is an interesting piece about the economics of healthcare: from an employment/wages perspective. Hospital failures + shift to outpatient care centers = overall depression of healthcare wages. Choice quote: "If providers become overleveraged and cannot bear the expense of their acquisitions, that can lead to stagnant or declining wages, researchers added." If? Meanwhile, the healthcare landscape in Texas has been particularly bleak. But, who's counting?

Notable (Amazon, 3D-Printing, International Distress, Nordstrom, Taxis)

AmazonLosing a user experience advantage

3-D Printing. Remember when we said that it could be a game changer and put a lot of companies out of business? Well, adoption is growing so draw your own conclusions (firewall).

International Distress. Looks like Aurelius Capital Management has a fight on its hands in the case of Oi SA

Nordstrom. A take private transaction is nearing.

Taxis. There may not be a more painful user experience than the NYC taxi ride. Cramped old sticky leather seats, the distinct smell of 12-hour old vomit, a loud talkative driver who can't use or doesn't use GPS, that annoying TV Talk nonsense blabbering on and on, and air conditioning that inexplicably seems to spit out heat. But, you still have to feel for these guys, the poster-children for disruption. And now the vultures are circling looking to take advantage of desperation.

Sports (Long Geeks, Short Jocks): NFL Down. E-sports Up.

Final Revenge of the Nerds

Ex-Irma, NFL ratings appear to continue their downward trend. This is disconcerting if you're the NFL, Disney/ESPN, and other media outlets (including recent streamers who've paid a boatload to stream NFL games). We've seen sports teams in need of restructuring (the Texas Rangers come to mind as do certain hockey franchises) but never whole leagues. Back up the truck you say? You're right. The NFL isn't going anywhere. But consider this: the NFL benefits in many respects from a seasonal (American) sports monopoly. Baseball doesn't compete outside the first third of the season. Nobody gives a damn about the NBA from October-March. Esports, however, are season agnostic. And the nerds can't seem to get enough of it. VCs (including NBA stars) are investing, leagues are forming, and nerds are watching. Like, a lot. This is an under-stated threat to a game where a bunch of meatheads bash each over 11 minutes of actual action interspersed between 100 minutes of commercials.  

Is Home Depot Really Immune to Amazon?

Home Depot's Appliance Revenues May Suffer

This is a solid piece about how Home Depot ($HD) is "Amazon-proof." Color us skeptical. There are strong, well-articulated arguments therein but if you actually read to the end you get to this brief sort-of-footnote-like afterward that talks about how Amazon's foray into appliances COULD, in fact, do damage. Is it a bankruptcy candidate? No. Is its moat so wide that it's beyond the scope of disruption? No, again. Appliances make up a significant amount of HD's sales. Hmmm.

Peloton is Expanding its Experiential Retail Presence in NYC

Peloton - the "fitness brand" bringing exercise bikes into the home for your spinning enjoyment - is expanding its brick-and-mortar footprint with its second rental in NYC. In its first location, it leveraged the "experiential" nature of its brand by providing classes. And that's, like, all the rage. But experiences aren't necessarily always the panacea for retail

Private Equity Recruiting is Bananas

M*therf*ckers Have Lost Their G*d-damned Minds

There is so much to unpack in this stupid piece about the annual private equity recruiting frenzy. First, let's stop calling kids who are weeks out of college "talent" merely because they got a job in an investment bank trainee program. They haven't proven that they're talented at anything just yet. Going to an ivy league school, having a trust fund and being a douche isn't dispositive of anything. So, everyone chime the f*ck down please. Second, these folks get paid $200k? And people say there's no wage inflation? Third, the idea that an ibanker trainee is going to be appreciative for the two years of training a bank has given them and, in turn, give later private equity business to said bank is ludicrous. As a practical matter, his/her connection to that bank lasts a mere few weeks prior to them securing the next bigger, better and more Tinderable gig with which they prefer to identify. This seems like an outdated model with bad assumptions baked into it. The only sure thing seems to be that no matter which one of the PE firms these trainees land at, they'll be hiring Kirkland & Ellis LLP as bankruptcy counsel for one of their busted portfolio companies. Fourth, we love this bit about recruiting being earlier than ever "after an agreement to hold back fell apart." Hahahaha. So, private equity firms - KNOWN FOR DEAL-MAKING - couldn't even come to a deal amongst themselves?? This is like mutually assured destruction among KKRWarburg PincusCarlyle Group LPApollo Global Management LLCBain CapitalBlackstone Group LPTPG and Golden Gate Capital. Here's a great idea: lets trip over ourselves - and each other - to hire people with literally "no work experience." Those interviews must be PAINFUL AF. And, oh, hey you Managing Director. We love that you're "often forced to cancel business meetings last-minute to interview candidates." We're sure a multi-billion dollar transaction can wait for some piss-ant Harvard bro who inexplicably and unnecessarily writes equations on glass to regale everyone with his rad math skills. So lit. On what basis are these kids REALLY getting hired then? We think its probably pretty obvious. And its questionable how this BS still flies. What does any of this have to do with disruption? Well, when you're competing with venture capital and tech to acquire "talent," desperate times seemingly call for desperate measures. Logic has been disrupted. And it's absurd.

Part of Toys R' Us' Failure? Amazon Plays the Long Game

Among today's frenzy around Toys R' Us...and we're specifically referring to Bloomberg, Debtwire, Reorg Research, and others tripping over each other to be the first to "break" news...there was THIS far more meaningful contribution to the discussion. Choice quote: "The companies agreed that Toys R Us would give up its online autonomy, with ToysRUs.com redirecting back to Amazon." This passage is referring to a deal struck between Toys and Amazon back in 1999. Yes, 18 years ago. We repeat: Amazon initiated the eventual destruction of Toys R Us 18 YEARS AGO. Private Equity merely helped accelerate it. Now THAT is what you call the long game. Respekt. 

Maybe Hartford Ought to Rip the Bandaid Off

Tech Will Present Even More Problems Later

Everyone focuses on the disruptive force of technology but, sometimes, the most disruptive maelstrom is human nature. And nothing brings out the worst in human nature like politics. And political dogma often results in bad decision-making and fiscal irresponsibility. And all of that has already happened. Like before driverless cards dominate streets and drones deliver packages. Parking meter and parking lot revenue will decline and budgets will be challenged. Local legislators will have no idea what hit em. To confront this imminent and somewhat-scary future, maybe the best course for municipalities is to shun alleged stigma and rewrite the script. Like by getting rid of legacy liabilities and having a clean slate. Apropos, some think that bankruptcy is the best course for Hartford to move forward. It may be the only way it's ready for the next onslaught. 

Amazon Better Watch its Back

Wish is Coming for it. 

The irony about the ongoing Amazon narrative, however, is that it's not like there aren't companies gunning for it. Even the Jedi got hunted. It just takes an audacious foe. Or a well-financed one but lets not split hairs. Enter Wish. We have previously mentioned Wish here and here and, with a new round of funding valuing the company at $8 billion, the company is becoming VERY real. For those of you advising retailers, you might want to make sure they're watching their flanks and not just focusing solely on Amazon.

PIRCH is a Cautionary Tale for Retailers

Experiential retail experiences only work if, at the end, a customer is compelled to buy. That’s not what happened with PIRCH. PIRCH attempted to be a platform that demonstrates the various brands it introduced to the consumer. But platforms only work if they take a cut of a transaction between a seller and an end user. Bottom line: PIRCH's failure is a cautionary tale for retailers who lose focus on sales in favor of experiences.

Disruption. In Human Terms.

Manchester Vermont is One of Many Towns to Feel Effects of E-Commerce

This is a heart-breaking piece about the effect of e-commerce on Manchester Vermont, where the commercial vacancy rate has risen from 5 to 15%. People seem to be legitimately suffering. Choice quote, "Morrow admitted to sleepless nights, staring at the ceiling and worrying about the economic storms stirred by Internet commerce." Yikes. Our readers know that we like to snark but this is no laughing matter. 

Retail bankruptcies are so common these days that perhaps we've become de-sensitized to the effect that this rapid change is having. Prior to Payless and Gymboree - two recent actual reorganizations - most of these businesses have liquidated. Those are jobs gone forever. That is tax revenue gone forever. Others have pivoted towards the internet and e-comm only, leaving shuttered brick-and-mortar and blighted communities in their wake. 

Is this depressing for a Monday? You bet. But we hope that it provides a little bit of motivation to those restructuring professionals out there reading this. Maybe you can help drive a retail client towards a resolution that keeps it in business? 

We also hope that it provides those tech entrepreneurs looking to "disrupt" the world a little bit of perspective. While the article may be speaking about "unintended consequences," they are consequences nonetheless. And those consequences are affecting thousands of lives. 

Busted Tech: Early Call on Bodega

If your head was buried in the sand (or you don’t have a Twitter account), you may have missed the coverage of - and subsequent and violent objection over - a new startup called BodegaThis is the piece that started the whole debate. And subsequently “disrupted” our twitter feed with lots of people vehemently opposed to the cultural appropriation of the concept/term/business by a couple of nerdy ex-Googlers awash with Silicon Valley greenback. Turns out that maybe they shouldn't have been so cavalier about displacing the neighborhood egg-and-cheese maker. We mean: people were REALLY mad. People APPARENTLY really LOVE paying $3.50 for a bag of M&Ms and $36 for a pack of cigarettes; they REALLY love paying for Amazon Prime but - cough - like, never using it to purchase goods that they could -- cough, cough -- get at a bodega. Spare us. Here are the founder’s words. Anyway, no flaws to see here. Just a lot of defensive responses like this. If sometimes in the future we're writing a bit about some incumbent being massively disrupted by Bodega we may tar and feather ourselves. 

Amazon is Coming After Liquor Delivery

Short the "Three-Tier System" for Liquor Sales

On the heels of Amazon's Whole Foods acquisition, the company is launching liquor delivery in more parts of the United States. Bezos seems to be laying off the liquor on his way to getting jacked but he sure AF wants you boozing like a frat boy. And he's doing everything he can to make that easier: including allowing you to order a six-pack through Alexa. Whoa. 

Liquor delivery is no easy thing. But complex problems haven't stopped Bezos before. The entire liquor supply chain ought to be very concerned - and that includes startup delivery services like Postmates, who are increasingly counting on booze delivery to grow. 

Jacked Bezos.jpg

Incredulous: Meal Kits as Savior for Grocers? C'mon.

Are Meal Kits Kroger's Defense Against Amazon? 

This makes no sense: "to compete with Amazon, grocers could start purchasing meal kit companies" (CNBC). Wait. What? Right, because all of the meal kit companies have demonstrated sustainability and profitability. CNBC states, "Some meal kit companies seem receptive to the idea." Hahaha. Of course they are! CNBC neglects to highlight Blue Apron's ($APRN) post-IPO chart but, suffice it to say, it ain't exactly pretty. That said, when your numbers look like those put out by Kroger ($KR) this week, maybe desperate times call for desperate measures.