Worries About New York City Grow

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Goldman Sachs ($GS) predicts that the proposed new tax law will spark some David Tepper-like rich flight out of New York and Connecticut. Choice quote, “These changes could create additional fiscal challenges for the high-tax areas, some of which already face structural pension funding issues,” the economists said. Luckily there are no services issues in the city like, we don't know, busted ferries, busted buses, or busted subways that will require vast amounts of capital to fix up to 1980s standards, let alone 2030. Go Yanks. 

Grocery.Effed

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Already-distressed grocers like Bi-Lo Holdings and Fresh Market were already dealing with the threat of increased competition from Amazon when Hurricane Irma swept through and hammered them. Apollo Global Management reportedly has extended a 6% unsecured $50mm bridge loan to Fresh Market to help keep it afloat. Meanwhile Bi-Lo is advisored to the hilt and seems headed towards some kind of restructuring. Tops Friendly Markets also has secured debt trading at distressed levels. While Kroger announced somewhat flat guidance going forward, it acknowledged an expected fall in earnings as price wars heat up with Amazon and foreign encroachers like Aldi and Lidl; it also announced that it hired Goldman Sachs to explore a sale of its convenience store business. While the stock traded up on the news, it is still down nearly 37% since the WholeFoods news. There will be winners and losers in this space and it seems increasingly likely to shake out quickly. 

Distressed Boutique Investment Banks (We Hope You Already Shorted This One)

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So, you don't see this everyday: Greenhill & Co., a boutique investment bank that dabbles in restructuring advisory work, announced a "self-help" transaction - powered by a new $300mm Goldman Sachs credit facility and $10mm from each of Chairman Bob Greenhill and CEO Scott Bok. The (quasi go-private?) transaction will include paying off debt, a tender for shares, and a substantial reduction-cum-elimination of the firm's elevated dividend. Our first question is whether shareholders get to waterboard Mr. Bok as part of the deal? Now that the company is levered, by some measures, to the tune of approx 9x, what kind of fee do we think its restructuring team will get for the (inevitable) restructuring of the new debt? 

Welcome to the Party, Hibbett Sports Inc. $HIBB

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6/26/17 Post: The past few years haven't been kind to the sporting goods and outdoor retailers with The Sports Authority, Eastern Mountain Sports (twice), City Sports, Golfsmith, Gander Mountain, MC Sporting Goods and JackRabbit Sports going bankrupt or being sold for parts. Now word is via Goldman Sachs that large brands like Nike ($NKE) will use Amazon's distribution channel directly and for exclusive products in an attempt to capture more of the millennial market. The news sent Foot Locker ($FL) and Dick's Sporting Goods ($DKS) stock reeling. This also doesn't bode well for the likes of Hibbett Sports Inc. ($HIBB). 

7/24/17 Update: "This also doesn't bode well for the likes of Hibbett Sports Inc. ($HIBB)." Well, we sure nailed that one on the head. This morning, HIBB is down over 29% on the news that it expects its Q2 same store sales to plummet approximately 10%. This, combined with gross margin pressures, will push the company to a Q2 loss - versus an expected consensus call of roughly 15 cents per share. The company also announced that it is launching an e-commerce site. Better late than never, we guess. 

Sporting Goods (Amazon Can Derelict Our Balls)

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The past few years haven't been kind to the sporting goods and outdoor retailers with The Sports Authority, Eastern Mountain Sports (twice), City Sports, Golfsmith, Gander Mountain, MC Sporting Goods and JackRabbit Sports going bankrupt or being sold for parts. Now word is via Goldman Sachs that large brands like Nike ($NKE) will use Amazon's distribution channel directly and for exclusive products in an attempt to capture more of the millennial market. The news sent Foot Locker ($FL) and Dick's Sporting Goods ($DKS) stock reeling. This also doesn't bode well for the likes of Hibbett Sports Inc. ($HIBB). 

REITS (Per Goldman, Literally Short GGP) $GGP

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We've been beating up the REITS here saying, essentially, that Simon Property Group's David Simon and some of these other REIT CEOs are full of sh*t when talking about retail and the affect of declining mall traffic, e-commerce, and prolific bankruptcy on their bottom line. Apparently, Goldman Sachs agrees; it downgraded GGP Inc. ($GGP) the other day.

Notable (Goldman Sachs, Intelsat, Linn Energy & Goodwill Stores)

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Goldman Sachs. Everyone loves to hate on them. Oh, and Venezuela ($GS). Pssst: there are several others in the trade too.

Intelsat ($I). There goes that Softbank thing. The merger didn't get enough creditor support. 

Linn Energy. The recently restructured company offloaded its Jonah and Pinedale fields and surrounding area to Jonah Energy, a platform formed by TPG Capital. For $580mm. 

Lunch. Short it. And the casual dining spots that serve it, e.g., Ruby Tuesday Inc. ($RT)

Ocwen Financial. Nothing like the "Strippers Defense" to ward off scrutiny ($OCN).

Retail. File this one under unintended consequences. It appears that Goodwill - yes, that Goodwill - is also falling victim to online shopping and is committed to downsizing its brick-and-mortar footprint and restructuring some operations. Someone on this newsletter should think about this as a potential pro bono project.

Interesting Restructuring News

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  • Busted Tech. Ok, not yet. But soon. Faraday Future has cancelled its plans to build a Vallejo California assembly factory - shortly after scaling back its original Nevada facility. This Techcrunch piece says that "it's unclear where the future will lead for Faraday." Seems pretty clear to us that it will lead to bankruptcy court. And, quietly, a number of (once) high-flying startups are laying people off including, notably, Postmates and Zozi ($60mm VC - Richard Branson and others). Finally, Munchery, often hailed as a top food-delivery startup, required a recap this week to survive.
  • Grocery & Sun Capital Partners. We SWEAR we are not picking on SCP here but c'mon already: now it looks like Marsh Supermarkets is in trouble as the company falls behind on rent and quietly - well, not so quietly anymore - shuts locations. So, let's recap: in the past 6 months, SCP has seen the following portfolio companies file for bankruptcy: Garden Fresh Restaurant Intermediate Holdings LLC, Limited Stores Company LLC, Gordman Stores Inc. Maybe this will be the next?
  • High Yield. Remember a few years ago when Chobani was distressed? Now you can get in on a new offering at a premium to par, it seems. Semi-related, the bidding to lend to Westinghouse in bankruptcy was reportedly pretty intense, with Apollo Investment Corporation duking it out with Goldman Sachs, Highbridge Capital, and Silver Point Finance for the privilege to finance the nuclear power company while it figures out how to restructure its business and address two incomplete installations in Georgia in South Carolina. Yield, baby, yield. 
  • Oil&Gas. That was fast. Like super fast. Seems the new owners of Samson Resources II, LLC don't share a very "long" view of the oil and gas space - despite "having discharged approximately $4 billion of debt and nearly $300 million of annual interest expense from Samson Resources Corporation," aka the previously bankrupt entity that filed in mid-2015. And distressed investors wonder where the term "vulture" comes from. PJT Partners LP was the previous banker for the company but with the Board being what it is, there's no surprise Houlihan Lokey has a piece of the action.
  • Retail. Finish Line added itself to the long line of retailers that reported dogsh*t numbers with earnings down, same store sales down, blah blah blah. Right, and approximately 40 store closures. Naturally. Also, David's Bridal was downgraded this week. The CD&R LLC owned retailer has a $520mm term loan due in 2019 and if millennials continue to flick off conventional marriage, there's no way they'll be able to sell enough gaudy wedding dresses to manage the interest expense. And, uh oh, now there appears to be a glaring hole in the "fast fashion" narrative as H&M missed expectations with declining net profit.
  • Rewind I: 3-D Printing. Not to be a broken record about this, but it is totally real. Last week we noted Adidas' plans for it and this week Under Armour followed suit. The implications for those in the supply chain can't be underestimated.
  • Rewind II: Glass Half Full. Looks like Gordmans Stores won't be a complete liquidation after all: Stage Stores stepped up and, as part of a joint venture with Tiger Capital Group and Great American Group, will acquire roughly 50 stores with an option for a handful of others. The remainder will be liquidated but this presumably means that, for now, a couple of dozen will continue to operate. At least until the inevitable Chapter 22 that occurs after next holiday season. Kidding! (Or are we?)
  • Chart of the Week: