Notable (Gaming, Guns, Fees and More)

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Activist Investing: A deep dive into what has made Elliott Management successful. 

Casinos & Gambling: The Supreme Court is considering arguments that will dictate the future of sports betting at casinos and racetracks around the country - a potential lifeline to an industry that has been plodding along. New Jersey is getting ready for some positive nows.

Guns (Long Irony): Donald Trump hasn't threatened the gun industry enough. Without the fear of increased regulation (which, of course, is mind-boggling after Las Vegas, but we digress), gunmakers are heavily discounting product and their stock is going in the sh*tter. American Outdoor Brands Corp. ($AOBC) and Sturm Ruger & Co. ($RGR) both saw stock declines this week on the news of slashed profit targets.

Healthcare: A running tally of all of the bankruptcies in 2017. The performance improvement consultants must also be at high capacity. Scripps Health, for instance, announced $30mm in cost cutting this week. And community health centers are apparently suffocating without federal funding from Congress.

Professional Fees: Caesars Entertainment Operating Co. is primed to pay $160mm in legal fees. Importantly, this number does not include the fee totals paid to financial advisors, investment bankers and the company's claims agent. Apples to grenades, we admit, but considering the fees seen in bankruptcy, Robert Mueller's $6.7mm nut over five months of investigation seems pretty lean and efficient to us. Just saying.

Retail (The Rise of Clicks to Bricks): Everlane is the latest digitally-native vertical brand that is embracing physical locations. Relating to the company's CEO, "He started the company understanding stores as albatrosses on the bottom line; now, he sees the value in them as temples to the brand." Meanwhile, FAO Schwarz is attempting yet another brick-and-mortar comeback in NYC.

Healthcare (Short Predictions, Long Distress)

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"What comes next?" we asked back in June. Looks like a lot of professionals are becoming increasingly convinced that '18 will be rife with healthcare activity as distress rises to "epidemic" levels. Hmmm. Okay. We'll see. Distress watchlists in the space DO seem to be expanding with names like HCR Manorcare, Genesis Healthcare Corporation ($GEN), Prime Healthcare Services Inc., Signature Healthcare LLC, and Community Health Systems ($CYH), among many others. Meanwhile, to the degree that healthcare providers are suffering from regulatory and other headwinds, management may want to move data security up higher on their list of priorities. After all, 21st Century Oncology Holdings and Morehead Memorial Hospital both serve as examples of what can happen when precautions aren't implemented early. One last note on healthcare distress, looks like biglaw attorneys aren't immune to increased healthcare spending. According to Abovethelaw.com, certain biglaw shops aresurreptitiously passing the cost of rising healthcare coverage costs to their associates. Living the dream.

Disconcerting Trends in Healthcare

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Wages Are Down

This is an interesting piece about the economics of healthcare: from an employment/wages perspective. Hospital failures + shift to outpatient care centers = overall depression of healthcare wages. Choice quote: "If providers become overleveraged and cannot bear the expense of their acquisitions, that can lead to stagnant or declining wages, researchers added." If? Meanwhile, the healthcare landscape in Texas has been particularly bleak. But, who's counting?

Notable (Sears Canada, Joyus, Community Health Systems & More)

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Busted Tech. Joyus, an online shopping platform that relied heavily on video, shuttered this past week announcing in a leaked memo that it would undertake an assignment for the benefit of creditors. The company had no venture debt but did raise nearly $70mm from Accel Partners, a Time Warner venture arm and investors affiliated with a Walmart ($WMT) venture affiliate.

Healthcare. Community Health Systems ($CYH) announced its preliminary Q2 financial and operating results and they weren't very pretty. Net operating revenues were down nearly $400mm relative to the same quarter last year. Categorical losses, however, were generally lesser than the year before. The stock - and that of spun-off Quorum Health Corporation ($QHC) took a dive after the report. Meanwhile, smaller ($1-10mm) healthcare providers continue to file for bankruptcy.

Noble Group. With $3b of debt and various other issues, lots of folks are souring on the name.

Och-Ziff. We've heard of camp counselor bonuses from satisfied parents but this $280mm package takes things to a whole new level. Also, long luck. 

Pure Unsupported Fantasy. Otherwise known as Sycamore Partners' claim that Dollar Tree Stores submarined the Family Dollar merger. So Dollar Tree says, anyway.

Sears Canada. And we thought we were aggressive with some of our commentary:nice headline. Meanwhile, it appears that Eddie Lampert and Bruce Berkowitz couldn't figure out a way to get along in the sandbox, calling off their joint effort to bail out the embattled Canadian retailer. Now ESL Partners LP may sell some of its stake to take a tax loss. Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital Management LLC increased its holdings not too long ago.

Shopping Holidays. Get ready because it is undoubtedly coming. Fresh on the heels of Amazon Prime Day, other retailers are getting jiggy with it (looking at you Walmart and JD.com) and intend to start their own shopping holidays. Looks like the big retailers want to make Labor Day even more pointless.

Healthcare Distress Heats Up $QHC

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Like a deluge, the (albeit small) healthcare bankruptcy filings seem to be pouring in after we clowned on the industry's charged focus on healthcare. Morehead Memorial in Eden North Carolina is the latest victim. It was operated by Quorum Health Resources ($QHC). Nice zinger by the company spokeswoman against QHC, which has been replaced as operator: "The board's goal has been to find a partner that shares Morehead's dedication to quality care and patient safety...." That can't help QHC's business development efforts. 

Healthcare (Short PETITION shorts)

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Two weeks ago we noted that we've beenusing healthcare pitch decks as paper weights; we questioned whether all of the talk around meaningful healthcare restructurings was overblown. We still do. That said, there has been activity in the space albeit of the small variety: see this, this, and this. This recent filing was under Chapter 9. So, we admit: we could be wrong. What do you think?

Bankrupt Companies Love Blaming #Obamacare

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As it relates to corporate bankruptcies, we feel as if we've seen nothing but negative accounts about the ACA. In its chapter 11 filing, its almost as ifAngelica Corporation went out of its way to sh*t on the ACA and blame it for, among other things, its bankruptcy. Same for Garden Fresh Restaurant. But, it seems that the ACA helped cut personal bankruptcy filings by 50%. We also note that it apparently helped the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico: per the bankruptcy filing, the island stands to lose $850mm of ACA funding in 2018 which would further the islanders' collective plight. 

News for the Week of 01/22/17

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  • Distressed Investing. A short discussion of opportunities in post-reorg equities.
  • Fraud. With lofty valuations and lofty P/E ratios come lofty expectations. And fraud. Here's hoping this is confined only to tech. 
  • Hospitals. They're going away.
  • Malls. Simon Properties and General Growth Properties take a hit from The Limited Brands bankruptcy, which is only valuable on an IP basis. But don't worry: pop-up stores and pickup centers will ease the pain. Wait, what?
  • Mexico. Pemex is selling a baseball field to sure up liquidity. Yes, you read that right.
  • Retail & Retail Analytics. Some analytics around retail. Meanwhile, in the face of talk about renewed IPO activity in '17, Claire's Stores unsurprisingly abandoned its IPO, further calling into question Apollo's $3b take-private transaction. And then there's BCBG trainwreck. But hope is not lost for physical retail: a number of e-commerce retailers are increasing their physical presence, including Bonobos, Rent the Runway and others.
  • Rewind I: More on the Dallas pension fiasco.
  • Rewind II: New developments with Takata pummel the stock.
  • Chart of the Week: 

News for the Week of 11/06/16

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  • For-Profit Education - Despite a recent settlement with the government, for-profit educator DeVry University faces new headwinds. Also, another college closure.  
  • Fossil joins the ranks of retailers who will soon be taking restructuring charges and closing stores.
  • Healthcare/Pharma - many distressed investors and professionals are turning their attention away from E&P, OFS and retail are turning their attention here given the possibility that increased regulatory pressure may create more stress.
  • Lumber Liquidators continues to face legal scrutiny: is it a near-term bankruptcy candidate?
  • Municipal bankruptcy -  Populism converges on Scranton as a $500mm+ debt load triggers voter movement to put bankruptcy to vote.  
  • Payday Lenders are under siege.  
  • Private Equity - an assessment of its influence and future.  
  • Last Week: We noted the large AUM raises by Oakhill and Carlyle for deployment into the distressed market. In contrast, Fortress Investment Group underscores that prices are too rich and yields too low, and so they're prepared to return investor funds.
  • Last Week II: As "Dead Malls" continue to garner attention, a major mall owner talks up its own book and projects a major Aeropostale turnaround.
  • Last Week III: In the wake of increased seismic activity, Oklahoma and federal regulators order the closure of injection wells in Oklahoma. We noted this issue in last week's feature.  
  • Chart of the Week: 

What the Pros Say (Week of 10/30/16)

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