Fashion (DNVBs = Distressed Opportunity?)

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Look for Our Launch of New 'Lit' Brand "Unicorn & Bankruptcy" 

Why is that so many brands now are named "Something + Something"? Are we the only one's who've noticed that trend? Anyway, Bonobos is a failure because it sold(out?) for 3x its venture capital investment to Walmart Inc. ($WMT) - or so the narrative now goes. Curious. Walmart, after all, reflected the makings of a resurgence this week with a blockbuster earnings report that many largely attribute to Jet.com's Marc Lore and the e-commerce expertise he's assembled around him. Like Bonobos' Andy Dunn, for example. Nasty Gal, however, is an entirely different story; it didn't sell for 3x. It sold for parts in bankruptcy court. Its ubiquitous founder, Sophia Amoruso, now runs a, gulp, digital media company (see above). Seeing Bonobos mentioned in the same breath as Nasty Gal must have Mr. Dunn questioning life's fairness. Anyway, read between the lines in the piece and it sure sounds like there could be a waive of would-be digitally-native disrupters disrupting themselves all the way to bankruptcy court (or an assignment for the benefit of creditors). Choice quote,"'We’re seeing that some of the same brands that get celebrated for raising $10M, or hitting $100M in revenue, are gone a few years later or eek out a distressed sale.'" You're damn right they do. Who wants to start the latest hot DNVB called "Unicorn & Bankruptcy"?

Chart of the Week I: The Rise of Corporate Cash

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Corporate cash load - now a record $2.26t - is showing solid growth (Apple is literally 10% of that). And people wonder why the private markets are the new public markets. With that much cash on balance sheet, is it any wonder that Bonobos, Plated, Jet.com, and others are getting scooped up by corporates prior to ever hitting the public market (and having to show the grotesque nature of their revenue models)? P.S. This doesn't count the $1.53 trillion of private equity "dry powder" that's just laying in wait. 

Corporate Cash.png

Fast Forward: Short Sephora & Lululemon & Whoever Makes Sheets These Days

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We're seeing more and more written about Glossier (women's beauty lifestyle brand) and Outdoor Voices (women's athletic gear) and word is that they may both be coming to a mall near you. Meanwhile, Caspar will now follow Harry's razors increased distribution strategy via partnership with Target (though not for mattresses...yet). We highlight this merely to get away from the male-centric (and false) emphasis on Warby Parker and Bonobos being the saviors for everything brick-and-mortar. 

Interesting News (Weed, Quora, Dead Malls & More)

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Bankruptcy Code Section 4:20. Just kidding...the bankruptcy code isn't available for folks who make money off of weed. 

Busted Tech. Answers.com takes a stray bullet in this piece about IAC's plans to shut down About.com. The fact that About.com has actually still been running this whole time renders us - yes, even us - speechless. Meanwhile, more busted tech is coming...soon. On the flip side, Quora is now a unicorn so who the hell really knows?

Canada. Housing is looking like an oncoming disaster - particularly in Toronto - and blood is appearing in the water.

Casual Dining. Quietly, a NYC mainstay is disappearing. 

Dead Malls/Investing. David Simon's optimism notwithstanding (see above), everyone is all over the "short the malls" thesis - now even extending it to the "A Malls" that, prior to recently, were generally considered to be impervious to this retail malaise (note: there's over $1b of short interest on SPG currently). And this guy from Alder Hill Management LP is the poster child. (Let us know if you want his report: PETITION has it.) Some are throwing shade all over this hype. Finally, according to this, maybe we should all be doing a better job to ensure that algorithmic shopping doesn't gain more ground and malls actually DO survive.

Oil & Gas. Nothing like a good old corruption allegation that embroils multiple law firms and a private equity shop to help push a company (here, Cobalt International Energy) closer to bankruptcy (paywall).

Oil & Gas II. Wait. So now we're at an oil and gas deficit?!

Retail II (Jamming like a Boss). While Gibson Brands was able to refinance its debt and push out issues, Guitar Center is looking increasingly troubled. Given that the company is private equity-owned, undoubtedly there is an over-leverage story here (like with all other PE-owned retail), but we wonder whether the show-room trend is particularly applicable to this kind of business. We asked our artsy friends and one of them openly admitted to strapping in at the local GC and then purchasing on Amazon. The pricing was the same and he didn't have to worry about lugging it home. We find the in-store lessons narrative dubious as well. There are countless online resources for learning guitar - YouTube, most notably. Meanwhile, we enjoyed this decidedly millennial take on the death of retail. 

Retail (Canadian Lumber Edition). Kidding, more like Canadian cashmere. Washable cashmere company Kit and Ace is restructuring in an additional acknowledgement that brick-and-mortar retail is tough - even if you're a VERY proven founder of successful apparel companies (in this case, Lululemon). Choice quote within: "Really it was just another store." Something tells us "Just another store" won't be part of the restructured company's marketing strategy.

Solar. SunEdison. Sungevity. Suniva. Verengo. SolarCity. Okay, just kidding about the last one but who knows what would've happened sans Elon Musk's Tesla/Solarcity merger shenanigans. Now Heliopower. We know many of you know the solar story: too much subsidy, too much debt, flooded supply from China pressuring margins, yadda yadda yadda. But we wonder if any of you have a notion with respect to a potential successful business model. We're serious: we're crowdsourcing your view here...

Taxis. Calling for a bailout.

The Profit. That's what Marcus Lemonis calls his CNBC show and now we'll get to see whether he can make some with the Camping World-led purchase of select portions of the Gander Mountain business in bankruptcy.

Fast Forward (Beauty). Uh oh. We noted last week that beauty category has been largely e-commerce resistant. Well, maybe not.

Rewind I (Bueller, Bueller). Get on with it already. Takata has become the new Westinghouse. Lots of noise. Just a matter of when. And, shocker! iHeartMedia's proposed subscription service with Napster - YES, NAPSTER - hasn't helped generate enough revenue to counteract $20b of debt.

Rewind II (Literally): We are as guilty as anyone hyping up the potential of autonomous cars but if anything is indicative of the wholesale difficulty to achieve 100% adoption, it's this piece about surviving Blockbuster franchises. Suffice it to say, there won't be driverless cars rocking the streets of Alaska anytime soon.

Rewind III (Shipping): We all know that the shipping industry hasn't been immune to its fair share of troubles the past year or so. Notably, Hanjin, Toisa, Daewoo, Ezra, and International Shipholding have all seen themselves in bankruptcy court. And, of course, Algeco Scotsman restructured as did Modular Space Corporation, as container companies, naturally, have also felt the effects. So, we thought this use case for surplus modular containers was interesting and we're dying for one of our readers in, say, Texas, to get one of these and report back.

Rewind IV (Apologies...More on the Retail Apocalypse): Last week we highlighted Jeff Jordan's early 2014 call on retail. Subsequently, he dove into the mall scene: you can read it here. The below excerpt should be particularly interesting to PETITION readers as we've been saying for some time that restructuring pros who continue to claim that Bonobos and Warby Parker will fill the retail void are, quite plainly, making a$$es out of themselves. As are, quite notably, REIT CEOs. Nothing has changed since JJ wrote this...

Interesting Restructuring News

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  • Busted Tech. This is becoming a regular topic. After LivingSocial (remember LivingSocial?) and its $6b valuation sold for bupkis, serious doubts now surround its acquirer, the publicly-traded Groupon. 
  • Lit. Google released the results of a survey showing what is currently considered "lit" (read: "cool") among the teen and millennial demographics. A few observations: 1) Ivanka Trump's brand was conspicuously missing and so clearly there is a high probability of this being "fake news" (yes, we're joking); 2) Netflix and YouTube are the two highest rated brands in both demographics which certainly raises questions about conventional media companies; 3) Tesla is considered the coolest auto company despite not necessarily having the highest brand awareness (nevertheless a positive leading indicator for electric vehicles assuming a) these idiots will drive, b) they'll have money to buy a Tesla, and c) Tesla can manufacture enough cars to meet the supposed demand); 4) Still, car brands across the board are cooler to millennials than teens which raises questions - in the face of autonomous cars - about what car ownership may look like in the next decade; and 5) there is little to no consumer products representation in the "cool" zone outside of footwear and electronics (gaming, Apple, GoPro) which speaks volumes about why we're seeing as much pain in the retail space as we have been. Notably, Uniqlo, Zara and H&M - favorite excuses for why conventional retail is, gulp, out of fashion, are all middling in the 6.5 area. Footnote: Quicksilver looks to have subpar awareness and "lit" ratings which begs the question: how long before Oaktree Capital Management flips it...?
  • Post-Reorg Equity. Apparently filing for bankruptcy hasn't turned out too badly for certain oil and gas executives who find that they're realizing a lot of upside value through the reorganized equity of their companies (WSJ firewall). Elsewhere, upon release back into the market, Peabody Energy's equity initially traded up 3.5% only to flip-flop and go negative by over 12% by market close on Tuesday. #MAGA baby! Coal is, uh...back??
  • Professional Fees. The American Lawyer seems to have it out for bankruptcy professionals these days as it seems freakishly obsessed with professional fees: in this instance, Weil's fees representing Westinghouse. 
  • Restaurants. "There's been an oversupply for 10 years in our industry," says the Darden Restaurants CEO Gene Lene upon announcing the acquisition of Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen. Still, the fast casual space is showing signs of strength: most notably, Panera Bread's stock popped upon acquisition news earlier this week.
  • Retail. We really tried to stay away from retail this week because, like you, we're just tired of the story. But, here (video), Jason Mudrick of Mudrick Capital Management provides some interesting thoughts on how to trade the space. This isn't new ground, necessarily, but for the less-initiated, his comments on the difficulty of shorting retail debt may be educational. Note, however, that his views are disputed by analysts at Citi who claim the CMBX trade is over-crowded and that CDS is, in fact, the way to go. Either way, his overall thesis seems a bit inconsistent to us. On one hand, he indicates that the "Amazon effect" (lazy) is leading to a secular decline in retail, generally, but on the other hand he leaves us with the impression that only the lower tier malls will be affected. If the "Amazon effect" is what it is and our parents will die and our kids only shop online (paraphrasing here), why isn't he mentioning the A tier malls as well? This seems to be a blind spot within the restructuring space generally. As we've noted, General Growth Properties and Simon Properties are appearing in the vast majority of these retail cases - even the little ones that nobody appears to have heard of prior to the last few months. Now, granted, there's something to be said for the "replacement value" argument: but are these mall operators really filling vacancies fast enough to maintain revenue and, if so, who is filling the void? Warby Parker currently has 47 "retail locations" (a term we use loosely because this includes small kiosks like the one in the Los Angeles Standard Hotel - basically a cart). Bonobos has 31 locations. Cuyana has three locations (one a pop-up). Birchbox has one location. And most of these are in major cities so not even necessarily in malls. And, directing you back to "Lit" above: we don't see much mall-based retail on that survey - "A" mall-based retail included. So then what? Chiropractors, dentists and clinics? Seems thin. All of this said, the WSJ reported that "the national retail-property market is holding steady," using flat vacancy rates as its measure across shopping centers, regional malls and neighborhood and open-air shopping centers. And mall operators, naturally, are talking a big game. Curious. (*Note: if anyone is interested, we do have a 50+ page hedge fund presentation outlining the CMBX thesis. Let us know).
  • Retail II. DAMN IT, retail, we just can't quit you. More from this past week: 1) Citi cut both L Brands and Urban Outfitters from buy to neutral, 2) Ralph Lauren announced the closure of its Fifth Avenue flagship store (with additional closures to come), 3) Bebe Stores announced the closure of its 34th Street store (great quotes within) and 4) the discount space saw some consolidation as Dollar General scooped up Charlotte-based Dollar Express, a Sycamore Partners company. We can therefore add this to our #MAGA! sub-category given the 2700 jobs slated to be cut. SO. MANY. JOBS. LIKE. REMARKABLE.
  • Second Order Effects....of advancing car tech. We previously covered Benedict Evans' presentation on the rise of mobile and made some abstract statements relating to second order effects of mobile phones and electric/autonomous cars then. Here, Evans goes a bit further in what makes for a long but interesting read about industries that ought to brace for change (thanks to our friends at Hilco for forwarding to us). TL;DR: car suppliers, machine tooling, car repair, gas stations, convenience store retailers (and, by extension, snack & tobacco providers), building power generation providers, safety equipment manufacturers (i.e., airbags - this is thin, we think, and airbags will probably still be in cars for the foreseeable future), parking operators, truck stops, etc. Of course, this all presumes mass adoption in the time frame the herd generally suggests: 5-10 years. There are notable naysayers.
  • Sungevity, a Piece of the Solar Story & Real World Ramifications. Yikes. This is a STINGING synopsis of the downfall of Sungevity, a solar company that recently filed for bankruptcy (our summary and case roster is here). To be fair, the writer seems to have some sort of ax to grind with the company but the comments taken from Glassdoor are, in many respects, heart-breaking and serve as a real-world reminder that while they may line your pockets and juice your bonuses, these cases hurt people. Remember that. 
  • Venezuela. With a state oil company debt payment of $2b looming on the horizon, investors are speculating about the likelihood of default.
  • Fast Forward: Someone just please put Seadrill Ltd. out of its misery. Per Bloomberg, rue21 is due any day now. Sequa Corp....finally. And metals/mining looks like its back on the map with the announcement thatA&M Castle & Co. will be filing a prepackaged bankruptcy shortly.
  • Rewind I: We've been spending a good amount of time highlighting busted tech lately and so we'll add another (per Fortune): Yik Yak. For the uninitiated, Yik Yak was a high-flying anonymous social media app that garnered $73.5mm of VC from Sequoia Capital at a valuation over $400mm. Now it is effectively selling for parts (to Square?) in a manner that likely won't even cover the VC. Ouch. I suppose we can call this the "Snapchat Effect."
  • Rewind II: Ashley Stewart, a plus-size retailer that was in bankruptcy in 2014 opened its first new store last weekend, a counter-narrative to the doom-and-gloom otherwise hanging over retail.
  • Rewind III: We've covered Spotify at length and this week's news of a potential direct listing rather than an IPO is interesting. And goes to show what we've been saying: that convertible venture debt it took on is getting expensive.

News for the Week of 01/22/17

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  • Distressed Investing. A short discussion of opportunities in post-reorg equities.
  • Fraud. With lofty valuations and lofty P/E ratios come lofty expectations. And fraud. Here's hoping this is confined only to tech. 
  • Hospitals. They're going away.
  • Malls. Simon Properties and General Growth Properties take a hit from The Limited Brands bankruptcy, which is only valuable on an IP basis. But don't worry: pop-up stores and pickup centers will ease the pain. Wait, what?
  • Mexico. Pemex is selling a baseball field to sure up liquidity. Yes, you read that right.
  • Retail & Retail Analytics. Some analytics around retail. Meanwhile, in the face of talk about renewed IPO activity in '17, Claire's Stores unsurprisingly abandoned its IPO, further calling into question Apollo's $3b take-private transaction. And then there's BCBG trainwreck. But hope is not lost for physical retail: a number of e-commerce retailers are increasing their physical presence, including Bonobos, Rent the Runway and others.
  • Rewind I: More on the Dallas pension fiasco.
  • Rewind II: New developments with Takata pummel the stock.
  • Chart of the Week: