🤪Malls, Malls, Malls (Long Eccentric High-AF CEOs)🤪

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Things continue to get worse for certain players in the mall REIT space.

On October 24th, Washington Prime Group Inc. ($WPG) reported earnings and managed to surpass rock bottom expectations. The above-referenced net operating income decrease came from a $4.3mm “negative impact of cotenancy and rental income from 2018 anchor bankruptcies (Bon-Ton Stores, Sears, Toys R Us), and $2.1mm was attributable to 2019 bankruptcies (Charlotte Russe, Gymboree and Payless ShoeSource).” Occupancy decreased 1.1% to 92.9% during Q3 and the company lowered guidance (negative EPS).

S&P Ratings subsequently downgraded WPG from BB to BB- saying:

…despite slight sequential improvement, same-property NOI growth at tier 1 enclosed properties remained extremely negative, declining 8.8% with negative 7.6% releasing spreads over the past year, affected by co-tenancy clauses and additional bankruptcies/liquidations, with some expected redevelopment deliveries delayed. We believe overall metrics are modestly worse when factoring in the company's 14 remaining tier 2 and noncore malls, which we continue to include in our analysis of Washington Prime. Due to third-quarter results, management downwardly revised its publicly stated operating target for same-property NOI growth in 2019.

Washington Prime Group Inc.'s operating performance has continued to deteriorate such that we now view the company's business less favorably, with weaker cash flow, lower EBITDA margins, and diminishing prospects for stabilization in 2020.

Louis Conforti, WPG’s CEO, took to alt rock to explain the company’s negative performance, saying “[t]ake it from the Strokes, one of my all-time favorite bands, it's not hard to explain” before describing the effects of the #retailapocalypse on performance.

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🍴Declining Restaurant Trends Ripple Through (Short Dinnerware)🍴

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There are a number of trends that are taking hold currently that may be disruptive to a company that manufactures and distributes glass tableware (i.e., shot glasses, tumblers, stemware, mugs, bowls, etc.) and ceramic dinnerware products (i.e., servicing utensils and trays) to food service distributors, mass merchants, department stores, retail distributors, houseware stores, breweries and other end users of glass container products. First, people don’t go to department stores or houseware stores anymore (in case you hadn’t heard, check out the stock performance of every department store in the US and, for good measure, Bed Bath & Beyond ($BBBY)). Second, millennials aren’t drinking as much as Generation Z did. Third, people are ordering food more frequently and cooking and hosting dinner parties far less often than they did prior to VC-subsidized companies like UberEats ($UBER), Postmates and Caviar coming along. Indeed, per the company’s most recent report:

In U.S. foodservice, restaurant traffic for Q3 as reported by Black Box was down 3.6% compared to down 1.3% in Q3 of 2018.

All of these things are headwinds to a company like Libbey Glass ($LBY), an Ohio-based company founded in 1888. The longevity of the business is uber-impressive, but the year is currently 2019, and sh*t is unforgiving out there: Libbey is starting to look a bit troubled.

The company reported Q2 numbers back in August and revenue was down across all segments: food service and retail. The company cited “intense global competition” and trade headwinds (in both Mexico and China) as major factors. Net sales were $206.2mm, down 3.5% YOY, and the company reported a net loss of $43.8mm in the quarter (primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge). Notably, business was particularly bad in EMEA: $5.5mm decline. It was the second straight quarter where the business performed poorly on a year-over-year basis.

On the August 1 earnings call, the company noted:

“We do…continue to see declines in U.S. & Canada foodservice traffic, as has been reported by third-party research firms Knapp-Track and Blackbox every quarter since 2012. Our U.S. & Canada foodservice channel is currently performing in-line with market trends. Management expects these trends, and the challenging environment experienced during 2018 and the first half of 2019, to continue for the remainder of the year.”

In particular, one disturbing trend is takeout and delivery:

While this channel continues to adapt to the new norm of takeout and delivery, we've seen our focus on new products and differentiated service begin to pay dividends. In addition to these ongoing efforts, we are adapting our approach and resource deployment to expand into growing and/or underpenetrated segments of the channel, like health care and hospitality. As previously mentioned, we also see a significant opportunity to leverage digital tools to reach end users and further support our distribution partners.

Sure, they did. And they certainly needed to: a quick look at their numbers shows that the second quarter is typically the business’ strongest. This didn’t portend well for Q3 performance.

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💥What to Make of the Credit Cycle. Part 31. (Long the Consumer)💥

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It appears that the fear of recession is receding a bit:*

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Given the recent data on manufacturing and services, a recession can really only be avoided thanks to the consumer (and interest rates, perhaps). It looks likely they’re ready to do their part:

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Apropos, Deloitte released its “2019 holiday retail survey,” forecasting “that holiday retail sales will increase 4.5-5 percent this year. E-commerce holiday sales are projected to grow 14-18 percent over 2018.” They estimate that online purchases will account for 59% of holiday spending. That doesn’t bode well for brick-and-mortar retailers already feeling a world of hurt (or city streets). Here are some of the survey’s key takeaways:

  • Short-term consumer sentiment is positive and that confidence is likely to translate into spending this holiday season. However, “[f]or the first time since 2012, fewer than 40 percent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020. This is a 12 percent drop from 2018.” 

  • Shoppers are increasingly attuned to product, price and convenience. They want high-quality differentiated product……

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💥CLO NO!?!?💥

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On October 3rd, Deluxe Entertainment Services Group Inc., a content creation-to-distribution video services company (whatever the hell that means), filed a prepackaged bankruptcy case in the Southern District of New York. The purpose? To address the company’s over-levered capital structure ⬇️.

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That’s right, even “content creation-to-distribution video services” companies have no trouble loading up over $1b of debt.

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Gotta love these markets. Anyway, it’s not the capital structure itself that’s interesting here. Rather, it’s the parties playing in that capital structure.

In its bankruptcy papers, the company took pains to note that it thought it would get an out-of-court deal done. In July, it secured a loan — the $73mm “Priming Term Loan” above — to enhance liquidity and bridge the company to a transaction that would substantially reduce its debt obligations by equitizing the “Existing Term Loans.” Shortly thereafter, as all parties were working towards consummating the transaction, it became apparent to all that the company would need $25mm in incremental liquidity. While this is curious from a 13-week cash flow management perspective (), this shouldn’t have been a show stopper.

But then the ratings agencies had to go and screw everything up.

On August 5th, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the company’s debt three notches into junk territory to CCC- from B-. Per the Wall Street Journal:

S&P primary credit analyst Dylan Singh said the ratings were lowered because Deluxe has faced challenges in refinancing its debt structure, a problem that could increase the likelihood of a default.

Although the new $73 million loan will give additional liquidity to Deluxe, Mr. Singh said he doesn’t expect the company to be able to repay its ABL facility when it comes due in November and believes the business will try to extend the maturity before then. The current capital structure is unsustainable, he said.

Crossing over to the CCC threshold is a big problem for a lot of lenders — specifically, CLOs. For the uninitiated, here is a decent CLO primer about what CLOs are and how they work. For purposes of this briefing, it’s important to note that most CLOs are forbidden by their foundational fund docs from holding an allocation of more than 7.5% of their portfolio in CCC-or-lower-rated debt. This effectively handcuffed most of the CLOs in Deluxe’s capital structure from providing the necessary new money.

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💊How's GNC Doing (Long Online Supplements, Short Fitness Stores)?💊

GNC Holdings, Inc.
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A quick recap of PETITION’s coverage of everyone’s (cough, no one’s) favorite supplements slinger.

In August 2017 in “GNC Holdings Inc. Needs Some Protein Powder,” we wrote:

GNC Holdings Inc. ($GNC) remains in focus as it reported its Q2 numbers this past Thursday. In summary, decreased consolidated revenue, decreased domestic (company-owned and franchised) same-store sales, decreased net income and operating income, decreased manufacturing/wholesale business...basically a hot mess. Limited bright spots included China sales and the new GNC storefront on Amazon. You read that right: the storefront on Amazon. Ugh. The company has $52mm of cash, $163.1mm available under its revolver and a robust $1.5b of long-term debt on its balance sheet. The stock traded down 7% after the announcement (but was up on the week).

In February 2018 in “GNC Makes Moves (Long Brand Equity, Meatheads & Chinese Cash),” we introduced the great strides GNC was undertaking to avoid a bankruptcy filing. These actions included (a) paying down its revolving credit facility, (b) moving towards an amend-and-extend transaction vis-a-vis its term loan, (c) obtaining a $300mm capital infusion by way of issuance of a perpetual preferred security to CITIC Capital, a Chinese investment fund and controlling shareholder of Harbin Pharmaceutical Group, and (d) the formation of a JV in China whereby it would slap its brand on Harbin’s product.

The following month in “GNC Holdings Inc. & the Rise of Supplements,” we highlighted that the amend-and-extend got done. And this:

Concurrently, the company entered into a new $100 million asset-backed loan due August 2022 and engaged in certain other capital structure machinations to obtain $275 million of asset-backed “first in, last out” term loans due December 2022. Textbook. Kicking. The. Can. Which, of course, helped the company avoid Vitamin World’s bankrupt fate.  Goldman Sachs!

We also noted a number of DTC supplements companies that were juiced by financings or acquisitions, citing them as headwinds to GNC and GNC’s nascent DTC business. The stock traded at $3.97/share back then. And we wrote:

Perhaps those restructuring professionals disappointed by Goldman Sachs’ success in securing the refinancing should just put that GNC file in a box labeled “2021.”

We revisited GNC in May 2018 in “GNC Holdings Inc. Isn’t Out of the Woods Yet.” At that time, the stock hovered around $3.53/share and the company reported more bad news including (i) 200 store closures, and (ii) declining revenue, same store sales at domestic franchise locations, and net income. We wrote:

Clearly GNC’s future — now that it has some balance sheet breathing room — will depend on its ability to capture new international markets, e-commerce growth primarily through its private label, innovation around product to combat DTC supplements brands, and continued cost controls. It will also need to execute on its goal of translating e-commerce sales to foot traffic. To accomplish this Herculean task, GNC may just need some supplements.

Last July, we noted that revenue continued its downward trend but earnings generally beat (uber-low) expectations. In August, we highlighted how Goldman Sachs was acting very “Goldman-y,” given that Goldman Sachs Investment Partners was a major investor in DTC vitamins and supplements startup Care/of, which had just raised a $29mm Series B round. We’ve slacked on our coverage since.

So, like, what’s up with GNC now?

It reported earnings back in July and continued to show weakness. Quarterly consolidated revenue and adjusted EBITDA declined meaningfully — the latter down 3% YOY. Same store sales were down 4.6%. E-commerce was down 0.2%. Revenue from franchise locations decreased 1.8%.

The company blamed promotional offers it implemented at the beginning of the quarter for the lousy same-store sales results.

Early in the second quarter, we made some adjustments to some of our promotional offers and our marketing vehicles, and we saw a direct negative impact to the top line. We quickly course corrected and saw sales strengthen throughout the remainder of the quarter.

PETITION Note: somebody must have gotten fired. Hard. Nothing like dropping an idea that is so horrifically bad that it immediately resulted in a “direct negative impact to the top line.” YIKES.

Speaking of yikes, mall performance is, like, YIIIIIIIIIIIKES:

In addition, the negative trends in traffic that we've seen in mall stores over the past several years has accelerated during the past few quarters putting additional pressure on comps. As part of our work to optimize our store footprint, we're increasing our focus on mall locations. And as you know, we have a great deal of flexibility to take further action here due to the short lease terms we have across our store portfolio.

It's important to note that our strip center locations are relatively stable from a comparable sales perspective. As a reminder, 61% of our existing store base is located in strip centers while only 28% reside in malls.

As a result of the current mall traffic trends, it's likely that we will end up closer to the top end of our original optimization estimate of 700 to 900 store closures.

Mall landlords everywhere were like:

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💥PE Recruiting, Business Development & Retail Trends (Long Fiction Becoming Reality)💥

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Summer is now long over which means we just went through all of the “holy sh*t, it’s only the beginning of September and private equity is ALREADY recruiting “talent” for 2021” puff pieces (paywall). Every year, recruiting season gets earlier and earlier and yet the business media still acts surprised/incredulous:

We swear BusinessInsider recycles this piece every single year. It’s like Runner’s World or Women’s Health publishing their “workout of the year” which is almost always the same “workout of the year” from last year.

Recruiting shenanigans have been going on now for years. And we’ve been all over it. Here’s what we wrote in June 2017 (Job Trends (Short Junior Associates/Analysts:)):

Despite rising junior associate salaries - which, notably, one loyal reader says is almost always a leading indicator of an oncoming downturn - millennials don't want that stinkin $180k starting salary, constantly-buzzing iphone, and flimsy business card. The beard is the new business card, brah. Just as investment bankers compete with Silicon Valley "tech" startups that drone deliver pinatas filled with kale chips (maybe we're kidding...maybe we're not), law firms are also struggling to retain young "talent." Why? Because millennials purportedly want to just mix drinks, cut hair, and have ephemeral existences. Good luck with the next recruiting season.

Then in mid-September 2017, we wrote in “Private Equity Recruiting is Bananas: M*therf*ckers Have Lost Their G*d-damned Minds”:

There is so much to unpack in this stupid piece about the annual private equity recruiting frenzy. First, let's stop calling kids who are weeks out of college "talent" merely because they got a job in an investment bank trainee program. They haven't proven that they're talented at anything just yet. Going to an ivy league school, having a trust fund and being a douche isn't dispositive of anything. So, everyone chime the f*ck down please. Second, these folks get paid $200k? And people say there's no wage inflation? Third, the idea that an ibanker trainee is going to be appreciative for the two years of training a bank has given them and, in turn, give later private equity business to said bank is ludicrous. As a practical matter, his/her connection to that bank lasts a mere few weeks prior to them securing the next bigger, better and more Tinderable gig with which they prefer to identify. This seems like an outdated model with bad assumptions baked into it. The only sure thing seems to be that no matter which one of the PE firms these trainees land at, they'll be hiring Kirkland & Ellis LLP as bankruptcy counsel for one of their busted portfolio companies. Fourth, we love this bit about recruiting being earlier than ever "after an agreement to hold back fell apart." Hahahaha. So, private equity firms - KNOWN FOR DEAL-MAKING - couldn't even come to a deal amongst themselves?? This is like mutually assured destruction among KKR, Warburg Pincus, Carlyle Group LP, Apollo Global Management LLC, Bain Capital, Blackstone Group LP, TPG and Golden Gate Capital. Here's a great idea: lets trip over ourselves - and each other - to hire people with literally "no work experience." Those interviews must be PAINFUL AF. And, oh, hey you Managing Director. We love that you're "often forced to cancel business meetings last-minute to interview candidates." We're sure a multi-billion dollar transaction can wait for some piss-ant Harvard bro who inexplicably and unnecessarily writes equations on glass to regale everyone with his rad math skills. So lit. On what basis are these kids REALLY getting hired then? We think it’s probably pretty obvious. And it’s questionable how this BS still flies. What does any of this have to do with disruption? Well, when you're competing with venture capital and tech to acquire "talent," desperate times seemingly call for desperate measures. Logic has been disrupted. And it's absurd.

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💥What to Make of the Credit Cycle. Part 30. (Long Signs of Coming Pain?)💥

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This week the market got qualitative and quantitative signals that were decidedly mixed.

On Tuesday, the ISM U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers’ index registered 47.8% for September, the lowest reading since June ‘09, and the second straight month of deceleration. A number below 50% suggests economic contraction. Economists all over Wall Street bemoaned tariffs for diminished activity, with one Deutsche Bank economist noting “the recession risk is real.” President Trump, of course, parried, saying that higher relative interest rates and the strong dollar are to blame.

Similarly, pundits dismissed this data’s importance, noting that the US economy is more services-based (70% of growth) than manufacturing-oriented. In addition, a competing survey from IHS Markit showed some positivity, reflecting that “though the sector remains in contraction, the index rose for the second straight month.” It concluded that the US, China and emerging markets are all simultaneously improving. Ah, qualitative reports. Insert grain of salt here. 😬

On Thursday, the ISM non-manufacturing index — a widely watched measurement of the services sector — came out and the numbers were 💩. Like weakest in 3 years 💩💩💩 .

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🤪A Break from Regularly Scheduled Programming (Long Life, Death, Sex & Work).🤪

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We can think of some pretty horrific ways to meet one’s maker — a snake jumping out of a plane toilet bowl, a crane falling on your head while you walk down the street, a sinkhole opening up and swallowing you hole — but we reckon that dying at your desk is up there on the list. Top 5, no doubt. We can picture it: you’re sitting there pencil-f*cking some wholly-unnecessary-lost-cause-hail-mary pitch deck or useless-bill-the-client-anyway associate memo and boom! Your head plops to the desk and you’re a goner. Godspeed to whomever inherits that luck-filled office. Chill vibes!

There are many ways that Europe has the US beat (and vice versa) but you really have to hand it to France’s liberal work-related incident policy. Check it: in “A French worker died after sex on a business trip. His company is liable” we learned…ah…wait. Just marinate on that headline for a second. It’s just too good.

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💥Another Gangbusters Quarter from Pier 1 (Long Slow Deaths)💥

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Callback to previous Pier 1 Imports ($PIR) coverage here (Q1 ‘19 earnings summary), here (Q4, fiscal ‘18), and here ($71mm in cash remaining). Unfortunately, this will be our last coverage of the retailer because it appears to have pulled off a miracle turnaround of epic proportions: it CRUSHED Q2 earnings and appears to be well on its way to reclaiming “iconic” status!

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THIS THING IS A STEAMING TURD.

It’s even worse than we initially tweeted. Gross profit was 16.7% vs. 26.3% last year. The company’s operating loss expanded to $93.1mm compared to $62.5mm a year ago; it reported a net loss of $100.6mm or $24.29/share ($51.1mm and $12.68/share loss last year). The company noted “lower average customer spend” and “decreased store traffic.” And it sank $7mm into professional fees to help it right the ship. Management surely would’ve gotten torn up on the earnings call except, well, only one analyst was actually on the call. Nobody cares anymore. Anywho…

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🎯Experiences Galore: Dave & Buster’s Complains of Cannibalization (Short Arcades)🎯

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We all know the pervasive narrative: when faced with a decision between purchasing expensive new dress shoes (a/k/a “deal sleds”) or tickets to Coachella, a lot of people today opt for those festival tickets. Why? Experiences. Everything today is apparently about experiences.

McKinsey & Company once wrote that:

Over the past few years, personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) on experience-related services—such as attending spectator events, visiting amusement parks, eating at restaurants, and traveling—have grown more than 1.5 times faster than overall personal-consumption spending and nearly 4.0 times faster than expenditures on goods.

This strong growth in demand for experiences had, for some time, shown well for those already situated in the space. The surging demand for experiences, however, has attracted new entrants, and may soon produce winners/losers in the space. Dave & Busters Entertainment Inc. ($PLAY) — a family-friendly chain offering a sports-bar-style setting for American food & arcade games — acknowledges this potential, among other things, in its most recent earnings call, announcing disappointing numbers

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⚡️Update: What's Up With Francesca's ($FRAN)?⚡️

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We first wrote about Houston-based Francesca’s Holdings Corp. ($FRAN) back in February when (i) the stock was trading at $0.92/share, (ii) the company had announced that it had retained Rothschild & Co. and Alvarez & Marsal LLC, and (iii) the company was coming off of a quarter where it (a) reported -14% same store sales, -10% net sales, and a net loss of $16mm, (b) acknowledged that 17% of its retail footprint was “underperforming,” and (c) blew out its fifth CEO in seven years. That’s all.

A lot has transpired since then. Going into its second quarter ‘19 earnings, the stock — after declining 80% over the last year — was suddenly and mysteriously on a small August upswing, reaching as high as $5.16/share on September 9 (PETITION Note: the company did a mid-summer 12-for-1 reverse stock split so that mostly explains the recovery from the $0.92/share level we’d previously written about but the upswing continued thereafter).

Then some weird sh*t happened. The company issued earnings and comp store sales were down 5% and net sales decreased 6%. Gross margins were also down.

Here is a snapshot of the company’s sales growth / (decline) over the years:

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The company noted a decrease in margin’s due to aggressive markdowns, here are EBITDA margins over the last few years:

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Here is the overall performance over the years:

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And yet the stock popped on the report:

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That’s right. It got as high as $18.14/share on this report. We know what you’re thinking: “that report sucks, the numbers were terrible.” Yes, yes indeed, they were. But, on a relative basis, this marked a dramatic improvement.

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💊Pushed Pills Pressure Purdue Pharma💊

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Long time PETITION readers should be, if they’re paying attention, identifying recurring themes confronting the various sectors of distress we cover. In retail bankruptcy, for instance, the stories generally contain the same elements: some combination of too much leverage (especially if PE-backed), too large an uneconomical brick-and-mortar footprint, slow adoption of e-commerce, poor supply chain management, awful off-trend product assortment, and disruptors (i.e., Amazon Inc., resale, DTC, etc.). In oil and gas, too much leverage backing capital intensive exploration and production initiatives, an unfavorable commodity environment, bloated SG&A, and too much money chasing outsized returns. In biopharma, new drugs are expensive and time-intensive to produce and often, despite potentially valuable IP and viable use cases, companies run out of money (and/or bust convertible debt) and are unable to continue paying to push their products through the regulatory framework absent a chapter 11. In healthcare, rollups of behavioral health, CCRC, rehab centers, etc., layer on too much debt on top of questionable business models in the face of an uncertain regulatory atmosphere.

And then there is another category: companies with little to no funded debt, minimal trade debt, an ability to fend off competition, and a viable product. What’s their problem? As we’ve seen in recent cases, i.e., Takata Corporation, Imerys Talc America Inc. (also discussed here), Insys Therapeutics Inc., The Diocese of Rochester, those companies tend to get sued into oblivion on the basis of shady-as-sh*t business practices or other general degenerative scumbaggery.

And so it should come as absolutely no surprise to anyone* that Oxycontin manufacturer, Purdue Pharma, has joined the fray, filing for bankruptcy this past week in the Southern District of New York (before the same judge administering the Sears sh*t show). Hold on to your butts people, this one ought to be interesting.

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Unless you’re a total ignoramus, you know by now that the country has been ravaged by an opioid epidemic. Here is 60 Minutes doing a deep dive into the issue. Here is the White House talking about “[e]nding America’s Opioid Crisis.” And here is John Oliver doing the John Oliver thing while talking about opioids.

We mean, you have to be willfully unaware or just plain stupid if you don’t know that this is a big problem. While numerous companies are implicated in this ever-visible scandal, Purdue Pharma is the biggest fish to fall to date (query how long that lasts). But, as noted above, Purdue Pharma generates a ton of money, has no funded debt, etc. So what it needs — and what it gets from a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing — is a break from the deluge of lawsuits against it. All 2,625 of them.

For the uninitiated, a bankruptcy filing triggers an automatic stay pursuant to section 362 of the bankruptcy code. This is an injunction, of sorts, that draws a line in the sand and prevents creditors from rushing to enforce their claims against a debtor. The idea is that by halting this rush and providing the debtor a “breathing spell,” the debtor will have a better opportunity to configure a go-forward strategy that is not only to its benefit, but also treats similarly situated claimants fairly. As you might imagine in a litigation scenario where there are literally thousands of potential judgement creditors scattered across various state and federal courts across the country, this is a powerful tool. It prevents Mia Wallace, plaintiff #1, from winning a huge judgement and collecting against that judgement to the point of siphoning away all of the debtors’ asset value before Vincent Vega, plaintiff #2, has had his day in court.** It also helps the debtors triage the outrageous expense involved with defending heaps of lawsuits all across the country; indeed, the Purdue Pharma debtors note that they spend $5mm/week — A WEEK! — defending themselves against litigation. They project to spend approximately $263mm on legal and related professional costs in 2019. That’s no typo, folks. Biglaw lawyers charge mint.

Here’s the thing about that “automatic stay” thing, though: there are exceptions to it — including, most relevant here, one that’s commonly referred to as the “police and regulatory power exception” (section 362(b)(4)). To preempt the applicability of this section, the debtors have already filed a “preliminary injunction motion,” seeking to enjoin continued prosecution of active governmental litigation against them (and a long slate of related parties, i.e., the entire Sackler family tree).***

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🤔A GameStop Turnaround Story? (Long Skepticism)🤔

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PETITION is generally about disruption and one notable retail business is clearly in the midst of a secular sea change*…

On September 10, GameStop Corp. ($GME) reported Q2 ‘19 earnings. They weren’t, to put it kindly, dogsh*t. The results reflected a sharp decline in sales -14.3% from $1,501mm in Q2 ‘18 to $1,286mm, driven by a 41% drop in console sales and 18% reduction in pre-owned sales. Comparable same stores sales declined 11.6%. To make matters worse, GameStop gave investors lower guidance than expected. On last Tuesday’s earnings call management noted:

We are approaching the end of the current console cycle with nice generation consoles slated to be available in late 2020, and as such we expect our year-over-year sales to be down over the next three or four quarters, reflecting the end of that cycle.

Such confidence and enthusiasm!! The shift to digital video games is clearly cutting GameStop out as the middleman, and increased competition is eating up its market share: the business is becoming increasingly cyclical.**

On the earnings call, Ben Schachter, equity analyst at Macquarie Group, had some questions for management about the shift to digital in the video game industry and how $GME is going to adapt:

Can we talk about high-level -- the shift to digital, and then how it impacted the business? So a few questions on that. One, when you think about the next cycle, what percentage of total game, do you think are going to be sold physically versus digital? And what your share might look like in that? Two, how do you expect to participate in digital? How will that evolve for you guys versus what it is today? And then three, around the used business, what does that look like as we move more to digital?

Management responded:

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PG&E Picks Up the Pace (Long Seth Klarman)

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Well, that sure didn’t last long. In “Is it a Plan or a Placeholder?,” we discussed the recently proposed plan of reorganization filed by PG&E Corporation and Pacific Gas and Electric Company ($PCG). We wrote:

Moreover, the plan also depends on the “Subrogation Wildfire Claims” — claims “held by insurers or similar entities in connection with payments made to others on account of damages or losses arising from such wildfires” — coming in at a max $8.5b.[] Will these numbers hold? We suspect the answer is an emphatic ‘no.’

As much as we like being right, we certainly weren’t expecting it to happen so soon.

A mere few days after filing its plan of reorganization, PG&E announced an $11b settlement with parties representing 85% of the Subrogation Wildfire Claims. This settlement, still subject to the approval of the Bankruptcy Court, â€œwould satisfy and discharge all insurance subrogation claims against the Debtors arising from the 2017 Northern California wildfires and the 2018 Camp fire.” Per Reuters:

The company also amended its equity financing commitment agreements to accommodate the claims, and reaffirmed its $14 billion equity financing commitment target for its reorganization plan.

One amendment was an increase in the “Wildfire Claims Cap” to $18.9b from $17.9b. The debtors understand the signaling here: with the subrogation claimants almost immediately getting $2.5b more than what was in the plan, they prudently indexed higher to account for wildfire claimant expectations.

Despite the assumption of $3.5b more in liabilities (exclusive of earlier settlements), this is a net positive for PG&E. They removed one constituency from the board (assuming they don’t trade out of their claims and blow up the settlement), got a legitimate impaired accepting class to help usher the plan through, and moved themselves closer to a global settlement.

Anyway, the stock — somewhat mysteriously considering the marked INCREASE in liabilities — reacted favorably to the news, up over 11% on the week and erasing Monday’s post-plan blistering:

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Previously in PETITION. Part II (Short Tony the Tiger)

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In June 23rd’s “Plastic is Ripe for a Reckoning (Long Ridiculous Branded Water)and in a short follow-up on June 30, we talked about how plastic has a bullseye on it. In the latter, we wrote:

Meanwhile, we were curious whether all of this talk about aluminum and glass taking over for plastic was having an effect elsewhere. Compare the bids for Anchor Glass Container Corp’s $150mm second lien term loan maturing 2024:

On May 6, the bid was 55.6 with a yield-to-worst of 25.2%.

On June 24, the bid was 71.4 with a yield-to-worst of 18.5%.

Long bullishness on glass containers?

S&P clearly doesn’t think so:

Here is where the second lien term loan traded this week: 70.7.

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☁️WeWork (Long Corporate Governance Wonks)☁️

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Surely you're sick of WeWork â€” uh, excuse us, “The We Company” — by now. There's been more drama surrounding its upcoming IPO than an episode of The Hills. You’ve likely heard about the $60b-to-$47b-to-$20b-to-$10b valuation drop, the wave pool, the dual-class voting structure, the insider deals between Adam Neumann, landlord, and Adam Neumann, tenant, and so on and so forth. We won’t rehash it all for you. We do have some word limitations. 

We do wonder if the events of the past two weeks are a sign of less frothy times ahead. After all, investors -- equity and bonds -- have gotten so accustomed to getting bent over the last several years that we're going long rheumatologists. Knees must be hurting.

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🤖How is Tech Doing? (Long Self-Imposed Pain)🤖

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Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) recently issued its “State of the Markets” report, reflecting tech-related activity over the first six months of 2019. Suffice it to say, despite a number of potential headwinds, e.g., trade wars and fears of stagnating global growth (particularly in Europe and China), tech continues to thrive. The question is: can that continue? Here are some key charts from the report:

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As we were writing this China announced that it would retaliate with tariffs on $75b more of US goods (with US auto taking a large hit of 25% on cars and 5% on parts).* As you no doubt know, President Trump responded in his usually temperate manner:

…blah blah blah…something fentanyl…blah blah blah. The stable genius and “Chosen One” then moved the US closer to the easily winning the trade war (cough) by imposing 30% tariffs on $250b of Chinese goods and 15% tariffs on an additional $300b of goods. Anyway, it’s safe to say that these headwinds will only get stronger and will have a big effect on tech.** To point, tech names got battered post-tweets:

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Why? Well…

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But, sure, tweets and stuff. Nothing to see here. Anyway, give the presentation a gander: it has some good slides on the state of venture capital, enterprise vs. consumer IPOs, and international developments.

*****

Meanwhile, The Information came out with this doozy earlier this week:

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☎️Who Knew? People Don’t Use Landlines Anymore? (Short the Peso, Short US-denominated EM Debt).☎️

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We’re all for a reprieve from retail and energy distress. Hallelujah.

Maxcom USA Telecom Inc. is a telecommunications provider deploying “smart-build” approaches to “last mile” connectivity (read: modems, handsets and set-up boxes) for enterprises, residential customers and governmental entities in Mexico — which is really just a fancy way of saying that it provides local and long-distance voice, data, high speed, dedicated internet access and VoIP tech, among other things, to customers.* It purports to be cutting edge and entrepreneurial, claiming “a history of being the first providers in Mexico to introduce new services,” including (a) the first broadband in 2005, (b) the first “triple-play” (cable, voice and broadband) in 2005, and (c) the first paid tv services over copper network using IP…in 2007. That’s where the “history” stops, however, which likely goes a long way — reminder, it’s currently the year 2019 — towards explaining why this f*cker couldn’t generate enough revenue to service its ~$103.4mm in debt.** Innovators!!

And speaking of that debt, it’s primarily the $103.4mm in “Old Notes” due in 2020 that precipitated this prepackaged bankruptcy filing (in the Southern District of New York).***

The Old Notes derive from a prior prepackaged bankruptcy — in 2013 (PETITION Note: not a “Two-Year Rule” violation) — and were exchanged for what were then outstanding 11% senior notes due in 2014. These Old Notes have a “step-up interest rate,” which means that, over time, the interest rate…uh…steps up…as in, increases upward/up-like. The rate currently stands at 8%. Unfortunately, the company doesn’t have revenue step-ups/upwardness/upseedayzee to offset the interest expense increase; rather, the company “…incurred losses of $4.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2019, as compared to losses of $2.9 million for the three months ended June 30, 2018, and losses of $16 million for the year ended December 31, 2018, compared to losses of $.8 million for the year ended December 31, 2017….” Compounding matters are, among other things, the negative effects of decreased interest income and foreign currency exchange rates (the dollar is too damn strong!).**** The closure of the residential segment also, naturally, affected net revenue.

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❓How’s Oil and Gas Doing. (Spoiler Alert: Not Well)❓

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Callback to May 12’s “Fast Forward - Oil & Gas is SO 2019.” We wrote:

In March’s “Oil and Gas Continues to Crack (Long Houston-Based Hotels),” we wrote:

The bankruptcy waiting room is becoming standing room only for oil and gas companies despite oil resting near 2019 highs (even after a rough 2% decline on Friday). We’ve previously mentioned Jones Energy ($JONE), Sanchez Energy Corporation ($SN), Southcross Energy Partners LP ($SXEE), Vanguard Natural Resources, Alta Mesa Holdings LP ($AMR) and Chaparral Energy Inc. ($CHAP) in “⛽️Is Oil & Gas Distress Back?⛽️.” Based on earnings reports or other SEC filings this week, add Emerge Energy Services LP ($EMES), EP Energy Corporation ($EPE) and Approach Resources Inc. ($AREX) to the list.

And:

Here’s the bottom line: both amend-and-extended and formally restructured oil and gas companies were an option on oil prices. That option is out of the money for a number of these companies. The end result will be an uptick in Texas’ hotel reservations and bankruptcy fees. And soon.

We also wrote:

Legacy Reserves Inc. ($LGCY) is yet another E&P company that looks like it may be destined for the bankruptcy bin. The company announced this week that it is evaluating strategic alternatives. It subsequently filed its 10-K which included going concern language and, significantly, confirmation that the company’s lenders had agreed to extend the company’s maturity under its credit agreement from April 1 to May 31, 2019. This is like a good movie needing a bit more production time prior to theatric release: usually, the movie ultimately it gets released. Likewise, this will ultimately end up in bankruptcy court.

Let’s take stock of the bankruptcy bodybag count since then:

  • Jones Energy ✅;

  • Southcross Energy Partners LP ✅;

  • Vanguard Natural Resources ✅;

  • Sanchez Energy Corporation ✅;

  • Emerge Energy Services LP ✅;

  • Legacy Reserves ✅.

Meanwhile, EP Energy Corporation ($EPEG) reportedly just missed its $40mm interest payment due under the indenture governing its 8.000% 1.5 Lien Notes due 2025 (due on August 15, 2019). Of course, there’s also been a number of private oil-and-gas companies 

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💩Yes, Let’s Get Right to It: Retail Blows. The End.💩

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You have to respect the brevity deployed by Lolli and Pops Inc., the sweets retailer that filed for bankruptcy in the District of Delaware on Monday. In a shockingly-yet-refreshingly terse 8-page first day declaration, the company and its affiliated debtors’ CRO justified the bankruptcy filing by saying, in effect, the following: retail blows. The funny thing is that the document could have been even shorter. We’ll give it a shot:

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