đź’ĄWhat to Make of the Credit Cycle. Part 31. (Long the Consumer)đź’Ą

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It appears that the fear of recession is receding a bit:*

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Given the recent data on manufacturing and services, a recession can really only be avoided thanks to the consumer (and interest rates, perhaps). It looks likely they’re ready to do their part:

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Apropos, Deloitte released its “2019 holiday retail survey,” forecasting “that holiday retail sales will increase 4.5-5 percent this year. E-commerce holiday sales are projected to grow 14-18 percent over 2018.” They estimate that online purchases will account for 59% of holiday spending. That doesn’t bode well for brick-and-mortar retailers already feeling a world of hurt (or city streets). Here are some of the survey’s key takeaways:

  • Short-term consumer sentiment is positive and that confidence is likely to translate into spending this holiday season. However, “[f]or the first time since 2012, fewer than 40 percent of consumers expect the economy to improve in 2020. This is a 12 percent drop from 2018.” 

  • Shoppers are increasingly attuned to product, price and convenience. They want high-quality differentiated product……

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