🤖How is Tech Doing? (Long Self-Imposed Pain)🤖

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Silicon Valley Bank ($SIVB) recently issued its “State of the Markets” report, reflecting tech-related activity over the first six months of 2019. Suffice it to say, despite a number of potential headwinds, e.g., trade wars and fears of stagnating global growth (particularly in Europe and China), tech continues to thrive. The question is: can that continue? Here are some key charts from the report:

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As we were writing this China announced that it would retaliate with tariffs on $75b more of US goods (with US auto taking a large hit of 25% on cars and 5% on parts).* As you no doubt know, President Trump responded in his usually temperate manner:

…blah blah blah…something fentanyl…blah blah blah. The stable genius and “Chosen One” then moved the US closer to the easily winning the trade war (cough) by imposing 30% tariffs on $250b of Chinese goods and 15% tariffs on an additional $300b of goods. Anyway, it’s safe to say that these headwinds will only get stronger and will have a big effect on tech.** To point, tech names got battered post-tweets:

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Why? Well…

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But, sure, tweets and stuff. Nothing to see here. Anyway, give the presentation a gander: it has some good slides on the state of venture capital, enterprise vs. consumer IPOs, and international developments.

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Meanwhile, The Information came out with this doozy earlier this week:

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🛋Restoration Hardware B.R.I.N.G.S. IT (Long Shade)🛋

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There was so much that happened last week that we didn’t get a chance to report on RH’s stellar earnings report. We often report on sh*tty retail and so we’d be remiss not to highlight it: after all, RH crushed the home furnishing space this past quarter and fiscal year. It had record revenue, solid margins and strong go-forward guidance — despite headwinds such as tariffs (the costs of which the retailer unabashedly states will be passed on to the consumer). There were a number of interesting bits in the company’s earnings release.

In the midst of delineating successful initiatives, the company highlights:

Moving from a promotional to a membership model, elevating our brand and streamlining our business while developing a more intimate relationship with our customers.

That’s right. RH has one of the more shameful membership models out there: become a member and instantly benefit from meaningfully discounted prices. Then, forget that you became a member after your furnishing needs are satiated and continue to pay annual recurring membership fees to the retailer anyway. This annual membership isn’t like a media subscription or golf club dues: the chances of you purchasing furniture from RH every year are probably pretty low. As are the chances of you remembering to cancel your membership. Which, clearly, RH is banking on. One retailer’s promotion is another retailer’s flipped-upside-down membership model.

Second:

Opening architecturally inspiring and immersive physical experiences that render our products and services more unique and valuable, while doubling our retail revenues and earnings in every market.

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