Natural Gas is Over-Supplied. Hedge Funders Are Effed.

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This doesn't bode well for prices. "The record gas resources assessed by the PGC, in addition to robust domestic production levels and booked reserves, paint a picture of strong supply of natural gas in the U.S. for many years to come." A lot of hedge fund hotshots sitting on panels talking up their nat-gas and oil books aren't gonna be swinging so large go-forward. Likewise oil. Short Hamptons homes. 

Coal Export Numbers are UP! But Still Ugly AF.

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Coal exports for Q1 '17 were 58% higher than Q1 '16. That's the good news. The bad news is that the base line was pretty damn low. Exports are running FAR below capacity. Total exports were 61 MMst vs. 257 MMst of capacity. Subtract the 1, subtract the 6, carry the one...WHOA, THAT'S FRIKKEN UGLY. 61 MMst is less than the Norfolk Virginia has capacity to export...on its own. #MAGA!

Busted Tech: Shyp It Yo Own Damn Self!

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The ubiquitous Uber-for-X designation doesn't seem so ubiquitous anymore. That's because a lot of those companies have failed or are failing. Take Shyp, for instance, an on-demand logistics/shipping service where couriers came to your home, packaged your wares (Ebay anyone?) and shipped them for you. "Came" being the operative word. The company announced that it's retrenching back to SF, abandoning service in Chicago/LA/NYC. Choice quote (after getting $50mm in venture capital from Kleiner Perkins), "'Investors are looking to put capital into businesses that are cash-flow positive." Funny how that works. With so much "tourist capital" (read: sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, Fidelity Investments in the case of Snapchat ($SNAP)) flowing through venture capital, expect a lot more coverage of "busted tech" to come.

Welcome to the Party, Hibbett Sports Inc. $HIBB

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6/26/17 Post: The past few years haven't been kind to the sporting goods and outdoor retailers with The Sports Authority, Eastern Mountain Sports (twice), City Sports, Golfsmith, Gander Mountain, MC Sporting Goods and JackRabbit Sports going bankrupt or being sold for parts. Now word is via Goldman Sachs that large brands like Nike ($NKE) will use Amazon's distribution channel directly and for exclusive products in an attempt to capture more of the millennial market. The news sent Foot Locker ($FL) and Dick's Sporting Goods ($DKS) stock reeling. This also doesn't bode well for the likes of Hibbett Sports Inc. ($HIBB). 

7/24/17 Update: "This also doesn't bode well for the likes of Hibbett Sports Inc. ($HIBB)." Well, we sure nailed that one on the head. This morning, HIBB is down over 29% on the news that it expects its Q2 same store sales to plummet approximately 10%. This, combined with gross margin pressures, will push the company to a Q2 loss - versus an expected consensus call of roughly 15 cents per share. The company also announced that it is launching an e-commerce site. Better late than never, we guess. 

Notable (Abercrombie, Halcon, Sears Canada & More)

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Abercrombie & Fitch ($ANF) see-sawed its own stock after proclaiming that it would seek a buyer (stock went up) but then, a mere few weeks later, indicating that it had terminated the sell-side process. The shares plummeted 21%.

Halcon Resources Corp ($HK) plans, per Reuters, to sell its North Dakota operations for $1.4b in cash as part of a broader (and smart) plan to shift its focus to the lower cost-basis Texas' Permian Basin. The stock popped on the news. The piece makes it sound like this is the CEO's grand vision - as if he's not getting a tremendous amount of pressure from his new(ish) credit-oriented short-term-oriented overlords. 

Hedge Funds. Apparently the business isn't as bad as previously thought. That is, unless these investments in Puerto Rico bonds crater.

India (Geographical arbitrage). Hey you. Yeah, you, Associate sitting in New York with a 15 year path to partnership. You may want to consider moving to India and becoming an expert in the new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code there. Apparently nobody there has a clue what the hell is going on. You may be able to fast-track your career. We want credit if you pull the trigger.

Professional Athletes (Short Personal Finance Wherewithal). Livan Hernandez, who made $53mm over the course of his baseball career, has filed for bankruptcy. Seriously, what the hell is wrong with these guys? 

Sears Canada. C'mon. Eddie Lampert, the King of Bad-Money-After-Good (aka all things Sears ($SHLD)), is reportedly considering a deal for Sears Canada. Officially, the company has hired a joint venture between Gordon Brothers Canada ULC and Merchant Retail Solutions ULC for the liquidation of inventory/FF&E of 45 locations and is actively pursuing a transaction: over 20 parties have signed NDAs.

Tea (Short Retailing it). Small potatoes relative to the universe we typically cover but given that Capital Teas Inc. was once a 22-store retailer of, well, tea, and is now bankrupt, we figured we'd note it. We particularly love how the company didn't even bother to update its "bio," of sorts, noting that it was honored as a member of The Inc. 5000, "the nation's fastest growing private companies." Well, not anymore, obvi. The company plans to shutter 10 locations as part of the bankruptcy. If that is considered "fastest growing," the US is even more effed than we thought.

True Value. This is not a distressed candidate - not with $1.51b of revenue in '16 - but the fact that the private company is reportedly looking to market itself is telling in this age of Amazon. The home improvement space is largely thought to be impervious to the "Amazon Effect." At least, that is the narrative behind investing inHome Depot ($HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. ($LOW). Perhaps people are worried about the narrative? Perhaps they're just looking to take advantage of a potential strategic acquirer tapping capital markets? Interesting.

WeWork. We admit: we're obsessed with this company. On the heals of closing its $760mm Series G round valuing the company at $20b, this startup now officially has a larger valuation than publicly-traded office REITS like Vornado Realty (which we covered here) and Boston Properties. Makes. Total. Sense. Jokes aside, it has inserted itself as a platform for companies like GM, IBM, Spotify and Salesforce, effectively being the office manager of choice. Interesting model. Can't imagine this remaining in a downturn when companies need to look for ways to cut costs.