💥Shade of the Week— “We Believe Real Models Will Become Wildly Popular in the Post WeWork Era”💥

Restoration Hardware Inc. ($RH) reported earnings this week and blew it out of the water in every possible way. Not all retail is a hot mess, apparently. When you crush it like they did — 6+% revenue increase and doubled profits — we suppose that gives you some license to sh*t on LITERALLY EVERYONE UNDER THE SUN. This is savage:

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DAAAAAAAAAMMMMN. DTC DNVBS and standard brick-and-mortar retailers just got run over by the Restoration Hardware bus. And rightfully so:


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The Quill decision (Short Wayfair)

You'll recall that, in September, we wrote about the disparity that exists in e-commerce taxation. In summary, e-commerce players have been able to avoid state taxation because of a lack of "physical presence." As we pointed out, Amazon ($AMZN) benefitted from this for years - at least until it decided that it wanted to conquer the "last mile." Did this help spark the #retailapocalypse? You betcha. But South Dakotans - all 3 of them - don't like to be effed with and so they're back in South Dakota v. Wayfair for a second bite at the apple in the Supreme Court. You legal bro-dorks may want to dust off your Commerce Clause know-how. This hyperbolic piece describes what's at stake, arguing that the SC's previous Quill decision ought to be fixed to accommodate technology and disruption. The briefers write, "Four negative effects of the physical presence requirement merit emphasis. First, the physical presence rule poses a much more serious threat to the fiscal stability of state and local governments than the Quill Court could have anticipated. Second, the rule results in economically inefficient consumption choices to an extent that the Quill Court could not have foreseen. Third, the physical presence rule distorts firms’ decisions about production, distribution, and corporate structure in ways that perversely discourage businesses from expanding across state lines. Fourth and finally, the physical presence rule likely raises the aggregate cost to consumers and businesses of complying with state sales and use tax laws." No wonder Overstock ($OSTK), which is also implicated, is shifting from e-commerce to bitcoin. 

How the Supreme Court Helped Amazon

THE LAW IS ALWAYS ONE STEP BEHIND

Since 2008 Walmart ($WMT) has paid 46x more in income tax than Amazon ($AMZN). That is a crazy stat and the link (source: Axios) is worth a read. But there's more to the Amazon tax story than that: it seems that the United States Supreme Court has contributed to the rise of Amazon and the rise of the "Amazon Effect." 

Here's the condensed version:

  • In 1992, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of a mail-order vendor over the state of North Dakota in a dispute over the collection of sales taxes. The case was Quill Corp. v. North Dakota. Why? Taxing the vendor would "unduly burden interstate commerce." The Court ruled that taxation would only apply to retailers with a "physical presence" in states. 
  • There's a ton of discussion about the "last mile" now - a reflection of just how much retail continues to evolve - but this ruling impacted corporate decisions in a big way for a long time: why locate a warehouse in the same state as the lion-share of customers and suffer a higher tax burden? 
  • Amazon avoided having any fulfillment center in California FOR 17 YEARS to avoid sales taxes. Overstock ($OSTK) and Wayfair ($W) STILL limit their distribution centers for this reason. (Now Amazon collects in all 50 states.)
  • The decision looks headed for re-evaluation. In what looks like a purposeful strategy to test the precedent, South Dakota lawmakers passed a law requiring businesses to collect state sales taxes on sales of goods over $100k - even if those businesses have no presence in SD. South Dakota's highest court held that the law violates Quill. 
  • So what's next? Looks like the lawyers are primed to petition for certiorari to the Supreme Court with the hope of a reversal of Quill. A reversal could help take some cash off of corporate balance sheets (see chart below) and fill state coffers. This could help counter-balance state budget ills, including underfunded pensions (see below). On the flip side, it may stifle e-commerce startup growth which, in a stroke of irony, may actually benefit Amazon further. Don't hate the player, hate the game...or something.